Market Snapshot for session ending 10-11-11:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1195.54 |
+.65 |
+.05% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
11416.30 |
-16.87 |
-.15% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2583.03 |
+16.98 |
+.66% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
2548.99 |
+11.30 |
+.45% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Index prices took breather Tuesday following Monday’s sharp gains.
- Volume in S&P 500 was up a fraction from Monday’s levels.
- S&P was last plotted just below secondary downtrend line (1214) connecting August 31 and September 20 intraday highs (1230.71 and 1220.39).
- Short-term Momentum and our proprietary Trading Oscillators remain positive, but all are now moderately “Overbought” on Minor Cycle.
- Intermediate Cycle remains “Oversold” and in zone of opportunity.
- Intermediate Cycle Price Channel resistance in S&P 500 was last plotted at 1241.71.
- Major Cycle Momentum remains marginally negative in all of major indexes.
- Daily MAAD was positive again Tuesday, but indicator remains below defined downtrend line stretching back to early March statistical high on daily cycle.
- CPFL was negative Tuesday and indicator declined to new Intermediate Cycle low with negative Daily CPFL Ratio of 1.43 to 1.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- “Oversold” Intermediate Cycle continues to offer upside potential, but without strength above secondary downtrend line in S&P 500 at 1214 with subsequent upside follow-through, we must continue to view recent strength as merely a rebound.
- While Intermediate Cycle could allow for a larger rally, possibility market could fail in face of resistance and then resume downtrend would simply cause intermediate trend to get more “Oversold.”
- Lacking upside confirmation by Cumulative Volume, CPFL, and MAAD, recent strength would be viewed as nothing but countertrend rebound.
- There is also issue of substantial “Overhead” resistance stretching up to May highs that begins at breakdown level of Head and Shoulders Top formed between February and late July with a “Neckline,” now major resistance, toward 1255.
- If Intermediate Cycle gains positive traction, strength will depend on market’s ability to overcome and absorb resistance as intermediate “Oversold” conditions are eliminated.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
8-30-11 |
9 |
9 |
8-30-11 |
46659 |
65396 |
|
8-31-11 |
13 |
6 |
8-31-11 |
32768 |
84508 |
|
9-1-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-1-11 |
22993 |
85196 |
|
9-2-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-2-11 |
40576 |
99268 |
|
9-6-11 |
3 |
16 |
9-6-11 |
52088 |
82703 |
|
9-7-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-7-11 |
59474 |
60854 |
|
9-8-11 |
3 |
17 |
9-8-11 |
22064 |
52542 |
|
9-9-11 |
1 |
18 |
9-9-11 |
40071 |
124636 |
|
9-12-11 |
11 |
9 |
9-12-11 |
55845 |
77322 |
|
9-13-11 |
14 |
5 |
9-13-11 |
52584 |
63492 |
|
9-14-11 |
17 |
3 |
9-14-11 |
80682 |
68721 |
|
9-15-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-15-11 |
105735 |
29793 |
|
9-16-11 |
10 |
10 |
9-16-11 |
201966 |
76148 |
|
9-19-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-19-11 |
41680 |
45169 |
|
9-20-11 |
5 |
15 |
9-20-11 |
28947 |
52027 |
|
9-21-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-21-11 |
16580 |
56439 |
|
9-22-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-22-11 |
43737 |
189046 |
|
9-23-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-23-11 |
36209 |
75962 |
|
9-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-26-11 |
38003 |
64487 |
|
9-27-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-27-11 |
61643 |
101582 |
|
9-28-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-28-11 |
17255 |
67111 |
|
9-29-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-29-11 |
40247 |
64690 |
|
9-30-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-30-11 |
29615 |
157176 |
|
10-3-11 |
1 |
19 |
10-3-11 |
31140 |
119159 |
|
10-4-11 |
17 |
3 |
10-4-11 |
135619 |
162696 |
|
10-5-11 |
18 |
1 |
10-5-11 |
62550 |
58171 |
|
10-6-11 |
19 |
1 |
10-6-11 |
51849 |
35141 |
|
10-7-11 |
5 |
15 |
10-7-11 |
41682 |
84455 |
|
10-10-11 |
18 |
2 |
10-10-11 |
74206 |
70175 |
|
10-11-11 |
14 |
4 |
10-11-11 |
38343 |
54933 |
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
