That being said I don’t think you get an automatic failure for this rally either. I know the action from the prior week was bad, really bad but we did get the major test I was looking for as far as the long term is concerned. Surprisingly, we had better calculations come out of this pivot than I would have expected. But we are not out of the woods yet. The wild card remains China and I hope it hasn’t been lost on you that the Shanghai Exchange was closed last week for holidays. Is it a case where the mice play when the cat is away? The SSE is either at or very close to important long term support. If they will bottom our markets have a chance to hold these lows. So the big question here is the assistants have proposed a new project, will the boss sign off on it? If China turns back up we can have some faith in this trading bounce. But if they continue south all bets are off. The problem here is US markets have come down to a place where they should logically make a major attempt to put on a technical trading leg. We have no margin for error. In a normal market they’ll hold. I’m not even sure what a normal market is anymore but the idea is to avoid the catastrophic scenario for 2011 these markets either have to hold these lows or drastically change the slope of descent to one of a market trying to bottom. Any more parabolic drops beyond what we had on Monday could cause the market to fall a long way. If markets don’t hold these approximate levels I’m going to start thinking in terms of retesting 2009.
Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.
Lucas Wave International (https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com) provides forecasts of financial markets via the Fibonacci Forecaster and other reports. The company provides coaching/seminars to teach traders around the world about this cutting edge methodology.