Market Snapshot for session ending 9-29-11:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1160.40 |
+9.33 |
+.81% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
11153.98 |
+143.07 |
+1.30% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2480.76 |
-10.82 |
-.43% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
2455.87 |
+29.36 |
+1.21% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Market as measured by S&P 500 remains range bound between August 31 intraday high (1230.71) and August 9 intraday low (1101.54).
- Trading activity as measured by Cumulative Volume in S&P 500 and S&P Emini futures contract remains weak relative to pricing.
- CPFL declined to another new low Thursday with Put Dollar Volume exceeding Call Dollar Volume by 1.60 to 1. Options players remain wary of stock market on long side.
- MAAD was net positive Thursday with 15 issues up and 5 down, but a net difference of 25 negative issues would force MAAD to a new low for move and its worst level since March 3.
- Short-term readings including short-term Momentum and our two proprietary Trading Oscillators remain near neutral while Intermediate statistics remain negative, but toward “Oversold” levels.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- With S&P 500 prices stuck in a trading range (1230.71-11101.54), longer it takes for S&P prices to re-assert Intermediate Cycle negativity with weakness below lower support point, greater are odds an intermediate-term low has been put in place.
- In other words, recent weakness would be viewed in retrospect as a “test” of early August lows (1101.54-S&P 500).
- Even if intermediate-term low is put in place, we do not think major resistance (1255-1370.58—S&P 500) would be overcome if rebounding develops.
- Also, given fact it would take little net selling to push MAAD and Cumulative Volume in both S&P 500 and S&P Emini to new lows for move, market internals remain precarious and vulnerable.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
8-18-11 |
1 |
19 |
8-18-11 |
57314 |
307820 |
|
8-19-11 |
2 |
18 |
8-19-11 |
83277 |
180689 |
|
8-22-11 |
11 |
9 |
8-22-11 |
75476 |
97419 |
|
8-23-11 |
19 |
1 |
8-23-11 |
47698 |
53693 |
|
8-24-11 |
14 |
6 |
8-24-11 |
40691 |
56428 |
|
8-25-11 |
7 |
13 |
8-25-11 |
42278 |
91822 |
|
8-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
8-26-11 |
38924 |
56319 |
|
8-29-11 |
20 |
0 |
8-29-11 |
75779 |
81438 |
|
8-30-11 |
9 |
9 |
8-30-11 |
46659 |
65396 |
|
8-31-11 |
13 |
6 |
8-31-11 |
32768 |
84508 |
|
9-1-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-1-11 |
22993 |
85196 |
|
9-2-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-2-11 |
40576 |
99268 |
|
9-6-11 |
3 |
16 |
9-6-11 |
52088 |
82703 |
|
9-7-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-7-11 |
59474 |
60854 |
|
9-8-11 |
3 |
17 |
9-8-11 |
22064 |
52542 |
|
9-9-11 |
1 |
18 |
9-9-11 |
40071 |
124636 |
|
9-12-11 |
11 |
9 |
9-12-11 |
55845 |
77322 |
|
9-13-11 |
14 |
5 |
9-13-11 |
52584 |
63492 |
|
9-14-11 |
17 |
3 |
9-14-11 |
80682 |
68721 |
|
9-15-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-15-11 |
105735 |
29793 |
|
9-16-11 |
10 |
10 |
9-16-11 |
201966 |
76148 |
|
9-19-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-19-11 |
41680 |
45169 |
|
9-20-11 |
5 |
15 |
9-20-11 |
28947 |
52027 |
|
9-21-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-21-11 |
16580 |
56439 |
|
9-22-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-22-11 |
43737 |
189046 |
|
9-23-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-23-11 |
36209 |
75962 |
|
9-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-26-11 |
38003 |
64487 |
|
9-27-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-27-11 |
61643 |
101582 |
|
9-28-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-28-11 |
17255 |
67111 |
|
9-29-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-29-11 |
40247 |
64690 |
* Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
