Market Snapshot for session ending 9-27-11:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
1175.38 |
+12.43 |
+1.07% |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
11190.69 |
+146.82 |
+1.33% |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
2546.83 |
+30.14 |
+1.20% |
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
2513.03 |
+46.71 |
+1.89% |
|
Minor Cycle |
Intermediate Cycle |
Major Cycle |
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Another day of gains Tuesday brought bids in the S&P 500 back toward initial resistance (1220.39) put in place via an intraday high on September 20. Minor Cycle resistance remains at 1230.71 created August 31.
- Cumulative Volume remains relatively weak, however, and has only recovered about ½ of the losses since September 20 even though prices have done somewhat better.
- CPFL declined to a new lows Tuesday, despite market gains.
- S&P 500 needs to decline below August 9 intraday low (1101.54) to make a new low for the move initiated after the May 2 high (1370.58) and must better the August 31 intraday high (1230.71) to suggest a possible reversal of the Intermediate Cycle to positive..
- Short-term readings have returned to neutral levels.
- Tuesday’s trading volume in S&P 500 increased by about 1%.\
- MAAD improved again Tuesday, but remains not far from new lows made last Thursday.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- Ongoing deterioration in CPFL suggests short-covering rally and countertrend strength on short-term cycle within context of larger intermediate term negative.
- Solid resistance up to August 31 intraday high in S&P 500 (1230.71), let alone back to “Neckline” of Head and Shoulders pattern (1255) recently broken on downside, suggests odds are remote market will be above to overcome significant resistance.
- While MAAD has demonstrated modest improvement over past few sessions, it would take little net selling to push indicator to new lows on Minor Cycle while positioning indicator for serious threat to March 2009 indicator lows on larger weekly trend to underscore fact “Smart Money” remains disenchanted with market.
- 10-Day Price Channel statistical resistance (1205.21--S&P 500 on Wednesday) could contain near-term strength.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
MAAD data for past 30 days* CPFL data for past 30 Days
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
8-16-11 |
5 |
15 |
8-16-11 |
45058 |
46229 |
|
8-17-11 |
12 |
8 |
8-17-11 |
43194 |
65757 |
|
8-18-11 |
1 |
19 |
8-18-11 |
57314 |
307820 |
|
8-19-11 |
2 |
18 |
8-19-11 |
83277 |
180689 |
|
8-22-11 |
11 |
9 |
8-22-11 |
75476 |
97419 |
|
8-23-11 |
19 |
1 |
8-23-11 |
47698 |
53693 |
|
8-24-11 |
14 |
6 |
8-24-11 |
40691 |
56428 |
|
8-25-11 |
7 |
13 |
8-25-11 |
42278 |
91822 |
|
8-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
8-26-11 |
38924 |
56319 |
|
8-29-11 |
20 |
0 |
8-29-11 |
75779 |
81438 |
|
8-30-11 |
9 |
9 |
8-30-11 |
46659 |
65396 |
|
8-31-11 |
13 |
6 |
8-31-11 |
32768 |
84508 |
|
9-1-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-1-11 |
22993 |
85196 |
|
9-2-11 |
0 |
20 |
9-2-11 |
40576 |
99268 |
|
9-6-11 |
3 |
16 |
9-6-11 |
52088 |
82703 |
|
9-7-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-7-11 |
59474 |
60854 |
|
9-8-11 |
3 |
17 |
9-8-11 |
22064 |
52542 |
|
9-9-11 |
1 |
18 |
9-9-11 |
40071 |
124636 |
|
9-12-11 |
11 |
9 |
9-12-11 |
55845 |
77322 |
|
9-13-11 |
14 |
5 |
9-13-11 |
52584 |
63492 |
|
9-14-11 |
17 |
3 |
9-14-11 |
80682 |
68721 |
|
9-15-11 |
18 |
2 |
9-15-11 |
105735 |
29793 |
|
9-16-11 |
10 |
10 |
9-16-11 |
201966 |
76148 |
|
9-19-11 |
4 |
16 |
9-19-11 |
41680 |
45169 |
|
9-20-11 |
5 |
15 |
9-20-11 |
28947 |
52027 |
|
9-21-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-21-11 |
16580 |
56439 |
|
9-22-11 |
1 |
19 |
9-22-11 |
43737 |
189046 |
|
9-23-11 |
15 |
5 |
9-23-11 |
36209 |
75962 |
|
9-26-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-26-11 |
38003 |
64487 |
|
9-27-11 |
16 |
4 |
9-27-11 |
61643 |
101582 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association and can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article.
