Oil rallies on news of fresh European bailout

Bailout Baby!

Hey, they fixed Europe!! Again! Talk about your European bail out party. Europe seems to be pulling the world back from the brink and magically all of our problems have gone away! Global stock and commodity markets are roaring as it expects a deal to save the Eurozone from sinking the global economy back into recession. Oil prices are surging back as demand expectations are again rising. Bailouts are bullish and oil is leading the way. WTI is up 3 % but Brent crude up only 2% as Libyan oil is set to come back to the market! Libya is sending a tanker making its first oil export since the toppling of the Ghaddafi regime. Still, it is really all about the hopes for a massive European bailout and as loyal readers of the Energy Report know, bailouts are bullish.

With oil's focus off of imminent economic demise we can start to focus on other fundamentals. We will be watching China's and their economic data to see just how fast their economy is slowing. Or we can focus on Russia where Putin is going to be leader for life and the possibility of another natural gas showdown with their neighbors. BP anticipating this ongoing dispute is proposing an alternative route. They want to build a pipeline to get natural gas from Azerbaijan to Europe to ease the Russian threat.

Dow Jones reports that "French oil giant Total S.A. on Monday raised its oil and gas output guidance and offered a bullish long-term outlook for petroleum demand despite near-term economic anxiety and a worsening outlook for European refining.”

Total revised upward its hydrocarbon output guidance to 2.5% annual growth per year between 2010 and 2015, up from a previous target of 2%. An investor presentation listed billions of dollars in new projects anticipated in Central Asia, Africa and the Americas. The company also pledged aggressive new exploration campaigns globally. Total executives downplayed the impact of recent economic weakness on oil markets, which remain tight in light of growth in emerging markets.

"Today some people speak about a potential recession but I don't see any impact on the physical market," Chief Financial Officer Patrick de la Chevardiere said in an interview. "A drop in global economic activity won't call into question the fundamentals of our industry."

Total has long argued the world is supply-constrained as far as petroleum and said Monday that recent trends did nothing to change this view, projecting $100 a barrel as a planning price to develop for some 30 major projects between 2010 and 2015."

We should see a big rebound in the EIA supply report as crude supply could see an increase of close to 5 million barrels!!!! It looks like my low for the year call is safe again! For now!! Get ready to rumble! The market moves are wild!\

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.


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