US corn is heading into harvest. So where is price headed?

Market Pulse: Sept 19, 2011

COT Data

Looking at the weekly chart below you will see that from the old COT Legacy report that commercials went from -295,685 contracts net-short on Sept.9 to -274,034 contracts net-short. See the weekly chart to see why you need to view the new Disaggregated report.

So over the past five years exactly what has happened to corn in September?

2010 open 424¾ close 495¾
2009 open 325 close 344
2008 open 560¼ close 487½
2007 open 327½ close 373
2006 open 231½ close 262½

Don't count on ever seeing corn trade $2.00-$3.00 again. I would be extremely shocked if that were to happen.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

16-Sep

9-Sep

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

7,100

2,536

2,958

Cattle (live)

-72,656

10,437

1,192

5,962

Hogs

-35,979

21,270

-6,094

-4,906

Corn

-413,915

-215,125

-274,034

-295,685

Oats

-7,738

-3,308

-3,818

-4,881

Soybeans

-203,260

-47,513

-174,262

-193,048

Soybean meal

-85,988

-12,672

-68,619

-76,105

Soybean oil

-117,444

4,362

-48,737

-52,052

Wheat

-32,577

65,226

53,760

36,249

Orange juice

-22,341

-11,011

-12,090

-11,164

Coffee

-45,699

-6,067

-26,372

-27,057

Cocoa

-41,808

7,729

-10,854

-16,450

Sugar

-221,694

-104,595

-162,419

-158,527

Cotton

-62,175

-26,984

-40,143

-34,613

British pound

-66,435

35,737

33,329

12,181

Canada dollar

-115,190

-8,624

-8,624

-18,973

Euro FX

-124,855

79,017

79,017

45,744

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-31,561

-28,149

Swiss franc

-42,387

-9,529

-9,529

-13,918

US dollar index

-17,535

14,003

-16,610

-1,568

Mexican Peso

-140,414

3,259

3,259

-11,164

Australian dollar

-110,025

-27,744

-42,435

-58,364

S&P 500

-88,893

73,398

73,398

62,973

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

229,611

89,708

59,239

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

88,803

15,417

21,470

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

458,230

458,230

424,734

Crude oil

-319,669

-59,672

-169,016

-174,801

Heating oil

-66,097

-7,401

-21,389

-32,494

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-31,329

-53,653

-62,050

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

149,556

151,803

Copper

-36,201

4,056

4,056

2,013

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-210,468

-227,714

Platinum

-35,249

-18,670

-33,462

-35,249

Silver

-65,413

-29,166

-45,387

-47,306

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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