Hogs: Hog prices fall sharply from summer to fall/winter. There are usually two waves of selling. The past two weeks of selling in cash hogs have even been worse than we expected. As the seasonals suggest, expect selling all the way into November. Futures are trying to guess how low prices will be as of Oct. 14 and Dec. 14. We will hold from buying futures right now as the phrase “catch a falling knife” comes to mind. Though this market is nearing our $82 downside objective in December, we will not get bullish at that price…Rich Nelson
Cattle: Let’s put things into perspective. Cash beef and cattle prices are having a short term struggle. Post Labor Day buying is a concern. In the big picture, better days are ahead…Rich Nelson
Rich Nelson is Director of Research at Allendale, Inc. in McHenry, IL. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com.