Are soybeans headed to their all-time highs?

Market Pulse: Aug 29, 2011

COT Data

Let’s not forget "big money." In the COT legacy report we saw commercials net-short -47,513 contracts on Friday, July 8. This past Friday, Aug. 26 commercials were -134,196 contracts net-short. What that means is that we saw increased buying and selling by big money. Of course, if you look at the weekly soybean chart below, you will see how Swap Dealers are actually trading in soybeans along with Managed Money and Producers (true commercials). Also watch weekly ADX now moving up to 26. That will show a strengthening trend at the price action when this takes place.

And yes, "big money" also plays in the US Dollar Index. We saw commercials on July 8 net-short -11,380 and this past Friday, Aug. 26 net-LONG 2,454 contracts. This you will want to watch very closely. Just look at the price action as commercials add to their net-longs. Interesting, isn’t it? Weekly ADX is at 17, which shows a weekly weak trending market.

So, it looks as if we could see a "perfect storm" setting up in soybeans. Time will tell, but at least now you know what to watch for.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

26-Aug

19-Aug

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

7,100

2,800

2,595

Cattle (live)

-73,179

10,437

-2,628

-11,544

Hogs

-35,979

21,270

-12,416

-15,612

Corn

-413,915

-215,125

-280,794

-286,967

Oats

-7,738

-2,977

-3,439

-3,308

Soybeans

-203,260

-47,513

-134,196

-86,005

Soybean meal

-90,487

-12,672

-51,010

-30,643

Soybean oil

-117,444

4,362

-11,160

-170

Wheat

-32,577

65,226

51,159

54,406

Orange juice

-22,341

-6,588

-11,774

-11,086

Coffee

-45,699

-6,067

-13,956

-7,926

Cocoa

-41,808

8,586

-10,910

-4,248

Sugar

-221,694

-104,595

-176,262

-159,137

Cotton

-69,857

-26,984

-36,650

-31,595

British pound

-66,435

35,737

-24,034

-5,550

Canada dollar

-115,190

-13,109

-25,868

-21,404

Euro FX

-124,855

50,392

-6,090

-7,908

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-48,704

-53,967

Swiss franc

-42,387

-11,573

-17,594

-16,906

US dollar index

-18,038

14,003

2,454

528

Mexican Peso

-140,414

-14,488

-20,595

-21,864

Australian dollar

-110,025

-27,744

-43,760

-27,744

S&P 500

-88,893

43,830

43,830

20,497

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

229,611

60,360

42,310

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

88,803

27,621

14,160

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

329,586

329,586

166,759

Crude oil

-319,669

-25,439

-150,456

-141,685

Heating oil

-66,097

6,558

-15,712

-19,752

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-10,453

-47,218

-47,872

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

158,569

162,126

Copper

-36,201

1,300

1,300

-890

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-230,436

-248,847

Platinum

-34,909

-18,193

-34,169

-28,039

Silver

-65,413

-29,166

-47,099

-40,681

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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