Big Money Movement in the Dow — Watching it could have helped you catch the ride down

Market Pulse: Aug 22, 2011

COT Data

On the weekly chart, we see that on the Friday July 29 COT report, commercials were -32,296 contracts net short and by Friday Aug. 19 they were -2,108 net short. On the other side of this large specs were net long 25,979 contracts for the July 29 report. On Aug. 19 they were net long 5,113. Solid liquidation, solid drop in open interest, solid drop in the market. For the best picture of how this movement affects the market see the weekly chart below and for the best analysis of this report on all of the markets go to Trends in Futures. If you need help understanding the COT report e-mail me at Gary@TrendsinFutures.com and put COT e-book in the subject line.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

19-Aug

12-Aug

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

7,100

2,595

2,786

Cattle (live)

-73,179

10,437

-11,544

-351

Hogs

-35,979

21,270

-15,612

-16,414

Corn

-413,915

-215,125

-286,967

-269,898

Oats

-7,738

-2,977

-3,308

-3,315

Soybeans

-203,260

-47,513

-86,005

-69,597

Soybean meal

-90,487

-12,672

-30,643

-33,913

Soybean oil

-117,444

4,362

-170

4,362

Wheat

-32,577

65,226

54,406

63,477

Orange juice

-22,341

-6,588

-11,086

-14,871

Coffee

-45,699

-6,067

-7,926

-6,805

Cocoa

-41,808

8,586

-4,248

-9,641

Sugar

-221,694

-104,595

-159,137

-168,729

Cotton

-69,857

-26,984

-31,595

-32,468

British pound

-66,435

35,737

-5,550

-6,343

Canada dollar

-115,190

-13,109

-21,404

-44,133

Euro FX

-124,855

50,392

-7,908

4,967

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-53,967

-49,902

Swiss franc

-42,387

-11,573

-16,906

-11,573

US dollar index

-18,950

14,003

528

-2,759

Mexican Peso

-140,414

-14,488

-21,864

-42,271

Australian dollar

-110,025

-27,744

-27,744

-35,947

S&P 500

-88,893

23,124

20,497

-14,480

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

229,611

42,310

37,321

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

88,803

14,160

49,460

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

166,759

166,759

-230,579

Crude oil

-319,669

-25,439

-141,685

-165,473

Heating oil

-66,097

7,568

-19,752

-7,401

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-10,453

-47,872

-54,158

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

162,126

161,109

Copper

-36,201

-890

-890

-9,535

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-248,847

-249,206

Platinum

-34,909

-17,979

-28,039

-22,287

Silver

-65,413

-29,166

-40,681

-35,341

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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