Currency intervention in the yen and franc, will it work?

Market Pulse: Aug 8, 2011

COT Data

On the weekly chart below you see that in the COT report from this past Friday that Commercials in the yen are now -64,854 contracts net-short, a 52-week low. We will have to see how the BOJ will respond.

In the franc, Commercials are -19,431 contracts net-short. That is off the 52-week low of -42,387 contracts reported on March 18. Also, we see the franc up today. Is another interest rate drop coming? Depends on how bad Swiss officials want to drop the franc.

As expected, the markets are responding accordingly to the S&P downgrade of U.S. debt. Today, Monday, S&P continued its assault on the U.S. economy, and ultimately the world’s, as it downgraded Fannie and Freddie Mac as well as other institutions linked to long-term U.S. debt.

As with all market drops, this too shall pass.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

5-Aug

29-Jul

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

7,100

2,235

2,434

Cattle (live)

-73,179

10,437

149

-4,413

Hogs

-35,979

21,270

-17,565

-13,774

Corn

-413,915

-168,342

-261,477

-241,488

Oats

-7,738

-2,977

-3,762

-3,735

Soybeans

-203,260

-47,513

-103,106

-120,304

Soybean meal

-90,487

-12,672

-44,525

-50,205

Soybean oil

-117,444

-13,670

-32,145

-30,257

Wheat

-32,577

65,226

65,226

58,878

Orange juice

-22,341

-6,588

-22,341

-21,459

Coffee

-46,751

-6,067

-6,067

-7,217

Cocoa

-41,808

8,586

-13,012

-19,554

Sugar

-221,694

-104,595

-186,625

-193,815

Cotton

-69,857

-26,984

-33,604

-35,642

British pound

-66,435

35,737

-10,464

-5,034

Canada dollar

-115,190

-13,109

-70,299

-65,886

Euro FX

-124,855

50,392

-6,099

-25,744

Japanese yen

-64,864

76,983

-64,864

-54,548

Swiss franc

-42,387

-13,396

-19,431

-21,607

US dollar index

-20,849

14,003

-3,096

-4,738

Mexican Peso

-140,414

-14,488

-93,802

-98,064

Australian dollar

-110,025

-41,514

-95,650

-101,746

S&P 500

-88,893

23,124

-32,118

-48,050

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

229,611

89,201

58,975

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

88,803

37,429

40,433

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

81,781

-119,996

-47,689

Crude oil

-319,669

-25,439

-181,231

-191,553

Heating oil

-66,097

7,568

-45,646

-48,573

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-10,453

-73,551

-79,234

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

149,673

134,586

Copper

-36,201

-2,547

-26,219

-27,302

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-287,634

-282,973

Platinum

-34,909

-17,979

-27,039

-25,092

Silver

-65,413

-29,166

-44,588

-42,773

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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