S&P 500 E-mini cumulative volume breaks key support

Market Snapshot for session ending 8-4-11:

 

Last

Net Change

%Change

S&P 500

1200.07

-60.27

-4.78%

Dow Jones Industrials

11383.68

-512.76

-4.31%

NASDAQ Composite

2556.39

-136.68

-5.08%

Value Line Arithmetic

2650.95

-162.50

-5.78%

Cycle Status:

Minor Cycle
(Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks)

Intermediate Cycle
(Medium trend lasting weeks to several months)

Major Cycle
(Long-term trend lasting several months to years)

Negative

Negative

Positive

Market Overview:

  • Sharp losses in major indexes Thursday re-assert Short to Intermediate Cycle negativity.
  • Cumulative Volume (see chart) in S&P Emini breaks below major support at March 2009 lows to suggest bullish cause is in BIG trouble.
  • Major Cycle statistical Price Channel support in Cash S&P looms at 1191.37. Serious breach of that level would cast serious doubts about staying power of bull market since March 2009.
  • Given proximity of index prices to Price Channel supports and extremely "Oversold" status of Minor Cycle, odds are good some rebounding action/short-covering will develop over next few sessions.
  • MAAD (see chart) using Daily data sinks to lowest level Thursday since August 27, 2010 to suggest Smart Money continues to exit this market.
  • CPFL (see chart) hits new Short-term low Thursday while setting up for a break off long-term uptrend line in effect since March 2009.

Click charts to enlarge

We are updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.

The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.

Click charts to enlarge

MAAD data for past 30 days*      CPFL data for past 30 Days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

6-23-11

7

12

6-23-11

90363

64042

6-24-11

3

17

6-24-11

23302

76948

6-27-11

16

3

6-27-11

27558

34959

6-28-11

14

6

6-28-11

36851

34376

6-29-11

16

4

6-29-11

108969

71000

6-30-11

15

5

6-30-11

54196

28399

7-1-11

18

1

7-1-11

100149

51993

7-4-11

Holiday

 

7-4-11

Holiday

 

7-5-11

8

12

7-5-11

58532

18215

7-6-11

6

13

7-6-11

68574

16147

7-7-11

18

1

7-7-11

196066

42730

7-8-11

4

16

7-8-11

49479

31316

7-11-11

1

19

7-11-11

61484

121450

7-12-11

5

15

7-12-11

30530

98038

7-13-11

14

6

7-13-11

25452

90215

7-14-11

3

17

7-14-11

57503

73908

7-15-11

8

10

7-15-11

122830

41278

7-18-11

0

19

7-18-11

32600

70051

7-19-11

18

2

7-19-11

81963

36469

7-20-11

12

8

7-20-11

48958

36029

7-21-11

14

6

7-21-11

81985

37458

7-22-11

6

14

7-22-11

26566

23969

7-25-11

5

15

7-25-11

60431

29726

7-26-11

13

7

7-26-11

12740

29994

7-27-11

3

17

7-27-11

25922

98893

7-28-11

5

14

7-28-11

31161

42272

7-29-11

5

14

7-29-11

39764

73156

8-1-11

8

12

8-1-11

67404

100232

8-2-11

0

20

8-2-11

44027

98237

8-3-11

17

4

8-3-11

112076

111221

8-4-11

0

20

8-4-11

104998

400116

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst, market timer and private investor based in New York City. If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This will take you to the MAAD article. Robert can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome