Technical indicators gain Wednesday on short-covering

Market Snapshot for session ending 8-3-11:

 

Last

Net Change

%Change

S&P 500

1260.34

+6.29

+.50%

Dow Jones Industrials

11896.44

+29.81

+.25%

NASDAQ Composite

2693.07

+23.83

+.89%

Value Line Arithmetic

2813.45

+20.82

+.75%



Cycle Status:

Minor Cycle
(Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks)

Intermediate Cycle
(Medium trend lasting weeks to several months)

Major Cycle
(Long-term trend lasting several months to years)

Negative

Neutral / Negative

Positive



Market Overview:

  • Index prices gained a bit Wednesday, but short-term trend remains negative.
  • Break below supports made last March is an indication some "bottom fishers" are awake, but strength could prove to be more short-covering than anything.
  • Cumulative Volume sinks below March lows in cash S&P while CV in S&P Emini remains well below March and June lows and just a nudge above March 2009 lows.
  • Minor Cycle stats are getting somewhat "Oversold," but to suggest a near-term bottom could be premature.
  • Cumulative Volume in Cash S&P (see chart) remains below major uptrend line stretching back to March 2009.
  • S&P Emini Cumulative Volume (see chart) has also fractured uptrend since 2009 while also threatening to sink below March 2009 indicator lows.
  • MAAD (see chart) using Daily data perked higher Wednesday, but overall statistical trend of indicator remains negative.
  • CPFL (see chart) gained a touch Wednesday and also remains in negative mode.

Click charts to enlarge

We are updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.

The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.

Click charts to enlarge

MAAD data for past 30 days*       CPFL data for past 30 Days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

6-22-11

6

14

6-22-11

42731

33184

6-23-11

7

12

6-23-11

90363

64042

6-24-11

3

17

6-24-11

23302

76948

6-27-11

16

3

6-27-11

27558

34959

6-28-11

14

6

6-28-11

36851

34376

6-29-11

16

4

6-29-11

108969

71000

6-30-11

15

5

6-30-11

54196

28399

7-1-11

18

1

7-1-11

100149

51993

7-4-11

Holiday

 

7-4-11

Holiday

 

7-5-11

8

12

7-5-11

58532

18215

7-6-11

6

13

7-6-11

68574

16147

7-7-11

18

1

7-7-11

196066

42730

7-8-11

4

16

7-8-11

49479

31316

7-11-11

1

19

7-11-11

61484

121450

7-12-11

5

15

7-12-11

30530

98038

7-13-11

14

6

7-13-11

25452

90215

7-14-11

3

17

7-14-11

57503

73908

7-15-11

8

10

7-15-11

122830

41278

7-18-11

0

19

7-18-11

32600

70051

7-19-11

18

2

7-19-11

81963

36469

7-20-11

12

8

7-20-11

48958

36029

7-21-11

14

6

7-21-11

81985

37458

7-22-11

6

14

7-22-11

26566

23969

7-25-11

5

15

7-25-11

60431

29726

7-26-11

13

7

7-26-11

12740

29994

7-27-11

3

17

7-27-11

25922

98893

7-28-11

5

14

7-28-11

31161

42272

7-29-11

5

14

7-29-11

39764

73156

8-1-11

8

12

8-1-11

67404

100232

8-2-11

0

20

8-2-11

44027

98237

8-3-11

17

4

8-3-11

112076

111221

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst, market timer and private investor based in New York City. If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This will take you to the MAAD article. Robert can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

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