Grains: Now through harvest

Market Pulse: July 11, 2011

COT Data

Also we will need to see how big money is moving through these markets. First analyzing the COT legacy report, we see that on Friday, June 3, Commercials were net-short corn -395,045 and by this past Friday, July 8, Commercials were -215,125 net-short. In beans we saw on June 3, Commercials were -100,113 contracts net-short and on July 8 they were -47,513 contracts net-short. With Wheat, on June 3 Commercials were net-long 3,103 contracts and on July 8 were net-long 55,729. As you know the charts below present the disaggregated report, which I find much more helpful and transparent. For detailed information on this report visit Trends in Futures.

And last but not least our friends in the media could lend a hand. This past Saturday the Wall Street Journal had a headline that said “China’s hunger for corn turns markets on ear.” The article said “a China buying spree for U.S. corn is putting on display the ability of Beijing to reshape grain markets as well as the cost of food globally.” Scary isn’t it? Take what you read with a grain of salt. Let the charts guide your actions. Read the charts below and I hope this helps you with trading grains over the next 8-10 weeks.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

8-Jul

1-Jul

Cattle (feed)

-1,290

7,100

3,169

4,562

Cattle (live)

-73,179

10,437

7,666

10,437

Hogs

-35,979

21,270

7,002

7,670

Corn

-413,915

-5,834

-215,125

-259,398

Oats

-7,738

-2,034

-3,710

-4,254

Soybeans

-203,260

-26,129

-47,513

-48,480

Soybean meal

-90,487

-12,672

-12,672

-16,395

Soybean oil

-117,444

13,023

-13,670

-21,599

Wheat

-32,577

55,729

55,729

46,115

Orange juice

-20,807

-6,588

-20,807

-20,631

Coffee

-47,729

-8,333

-11,276

-8,333

Cocoa

-41,808

8,586

-20,928

-14,794

Sugar

-221,694

-104,595

-169,633

-161,193

Cotton

-69,857

-12,970

-27,823

-28,032

British pound

-66,435

46,623

33,816

21,696

Canada dollar

-115,190

-13,109

-38,116

-18,130

Euro FX

-124,855

50,392

-56,631

-43,346

Japanese yen

-52,533

76,983

-6,358

-3,573

Swiss franc

-42,387

-13,390

-18,077

-23,279

US dollar index

-20,849

14,003

-11,380

-17,535

Mexican Peso

-140,414

-14,488

-89,047

-50,195

Australian dollar

-110,025

-28,612

-83,347

-55,863

S&P 500

-88,893

33,981

-28,357

-29,292

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

229,611

136,917

120,672

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

88,803

77,935

49,545

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

81,781

-191,767

-225,214

Crude oil

-319,669

-25,439

-156,799

-156,419

Heating oil

-66,097

7,568

-29,471

-27,916

RBOB Gasoline

-85,987

-10,453

-66,725

-56,344

Natural gas

108,160

228,910

141,729

142,635

Copper

-36,201

742

-18,589

-5,788

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-202,002

-208,755

Platinum

-34,909

-15,759

-18,830

-18,670

Silver

-65,413

-29,166

-33,451

-29,166

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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