What about the quality of this bounce. As far as I’m concerned, the calculations everywhere except the Dow are soft. The market is bouncing strictly as a result of the seasonal time factor concerning the Summer Solstice. That’s good enough to get the turn but not enough to sustain. In China, the move commenced in the 233 day window off last July’s low. Keep in mind their time windows are a little different from ours simply because they close their markets more often than we do.
Another issue I have is the high in the NQ has not been able to get beyond the resistance level you see on the following chart. The middle peak was achieved Tuesday night and held ground until the Fed Chairman’s press conference. People think it sold off because they didn’t like what Bernanke had to say. That’s not true. It just reached a point of resistance and supply where professional selling came in. The same problem held form on Friday morning when it turned on an outstanding Gann square of 9 calculation. I’m concerned we could get yet another retest of the March low simply because this set of conditions is truly a witch’s brew. If you consider that the high you are looking at has better characteristics than the low for this sequence breaking the March low has a much greater chance of materializing.
Click charts to enlarge
Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.
Lucas Wave International (https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com) provides forecasts of financial markets via the Fibonacci Forecaster and other reports. The company provides coaching/seminars to teach traders around the world about this cutting edge methodology.