Corn: Corn traded on both sides but finished about unchanged on Monday. This is actually quite fitting trade for this market. At the moment, technicals and fundamentals are suggesting two different directions.
Fundamentals have a weather forecast that still offers no real threats through the end of the month. New long range maps suggest a July forecast with no threats either. In 2008 and 2009, the previous two wet spring years, we saw corn acreage increase due to high price. It would not be hard to believe a USDA increase in corn acres at the end of the month for this reason. Producers are suggesting they may have planted more acres than originally intended in the non-flooded areas…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: After seven straight selling sessions, the funds were finally buying Monday. They bought 5,000 beans, 1,000 meal and 3,000 oil. The bounce was mostly contributed to short covering after seeing six straight sessions with declines.
There were talks of firmer cash markets in Brazil that were tied with sales of Brazilian soy to China. USDA crop progress was just released and beans are now 94% planted vs. 93% a year ago and a 93% five-year average. Bean condition ratings also improved. They are now 68% good to excellent. That is up 1% from 67%. This is right in line with the trade estimates from ideal weather conditions over the last seven days. USDA has conditions better than the 65% average.
The weather could remain bearish again this week as temperatures stay warm but rain could be heavy in spots…Steve Georgy
Wheat: Trade varied Monday in the wheat market as the Chicago and KC markets closed weaker, while the Minneapolis exchange had more of a mixed close.
The market is still jittery about the potential Greek default. There is a vote of confidence for the reorganized Greek government due on Tuesday. The trade will be using this vote as an indicator of whether or not they will get the much needed bailout money. Even if the government does get the vote of confidence, they still will need to make some difficult and politically unpopular cost cutting decisions to get all the funds that they need. Without the bailout, the trade is worried a Greek default could cause another world credit crisis. This has caused some traders to exit the commodity markets using an, “in doubt, get out” mantra for reason to liquidate the positions.
Outside money believes wheat demand is directly correlated with the world economy. If the world economy is not as strong as expected, then outside money will assume wheat demand is at risk…Jim McCormick
Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Rich Nelson is Director of Research at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com.