Last week June Live Cattle opened at 104.150 and closed the week at 104.100, no big difference there. However, it is a big difference from the all-time high opening on April 4 at 121.525. Viewing the daily charts below, you will see the OI started dropping in April (see COT on weekly chart), ADX at 63 reflects a very strong trend, MACD is bearish but has been losing divergence, and Stocahstics look to be correcting from oversold territory. Fundamentals for now are turning bearish. In “big money” movement, the Commercials (legacy report) went from -10,388 contracts net-short to -7,220 contracts net-short (a 52-week high). See the weekly charts below for a better view of “big money” in the disaggregated report.
Last week June Lean Hogs (think BBQ ribs here) opened at 9150 and closed the week at 8892½. Hogs have dropped considerably since hitting their high on April 1 at 104.350. View the daily chart below to see a very similar technical picture as live cattle. In hogs we see dropping OI, ADX at 49 reflecting a strong trend, MACD is bearish with no divergence, and Stochastics still are oversold, but look to want to correct. Fundamentals, for now, are turning bearish. In the COT legacy we see the Commercials last week went from 1,778 contracts net-long to the most recent report show 11,552 net-long (also a 52-week high).
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
COT Data
If you have been short since April like we have in Trends in Futures, then you may wish to tighten your stops to lock in profits as we may be heading into a correction from the drop since April. Keep an eye on the COT next Friday, it will tell us much with regards to “big money” posturing.
Have a prosperous trading week.
|
Commodity |
12-mo low |
12-mo hi |
27-May |
20-May |
|
Cattle (feed) |
-1,290 |
7,100 |
2,743 |
2,521 |
|
Cattle (live) |
-73,179 |
-7,220 |
-7,220 |
-10,388 |
|
Hogs |
-35,979 |
11,522 |
11,522 |
1,778 |
|
Corn |
-413,915 |
119,389 |
-377,407 |
-347,597 |
|
Oats |
-7,738 |
392 |
-4,087 |
-3,907 |
|
Soybeans |
-203,260 |
34,246 |
-89,886 |
-77,971 |
|
Soybean meal |
-90,487 |
-32,915 |
-52,700 |
-40,690 |
|
Soybean oil |
-117,444 |
32,394 |
-61,757 |
-46,107 |
|
Wheat |
-32,577 |
74,161 |
4,338 |
25,653 |
|
Orange juice |
-18,350 |
-6,588 |
-18,350 |
-17,545 |
|
Coffee |
-47,729 |
-13,098 |
-18,913 |
-23,702 |
|
Cocoa |
-41,808 |
8,586 |
-12,063 |
-14,044 |
|
Sugar |
-221,694 |
-104,595 |
-104,595 |
-105,697 |
|
Cotton |
-69,857 |
-12,970 |
-34,765 |
-34,595 |
|
British pound |
-66,435 |
97,211 |
12,229 |
-7,455 |
|
Canada dollar |
-115,190 |
-13,109 |
-53,275 |
-57,413 |
|
Euro FX |
-124,855 |
111,386 |
-22,818 |
-51,803 |
|
Japanese yen |
-52,533 |
76,983 |
-283 |
-2,792 |
|
Swiss franc |
-42,387 |
25,677 |
-28,263 |
-33,992 |
|
US dollar index |
-24,676 |
14,003 |
-7,447 |
-2,963 |
|
Mexican Peso |
-140,414 |
-14,488 |
-113,979 |
-110,479 |
|
Australian dollar |
-110,025 |
-10,793 |
-67,820 |
-67,636 |
|
S&P 500 |
-88,893 |
33,981 |
-68,674 |
-66,746 |
|
T-note -10 yr |
-74,761 |
235,451 |
129,054 |
199,338 |
|
T-bond -30 yr |
-43,324 |
88,803 |
11,415 |
-6,810 |
|
Eurodollar |
-1,179,414 |
105,872 |
-184,818 |
-293,517 |
|
Crude oil |
-319,669 |
-23,057 |
-225,640 |
-231,527 |
|
Heating oil |
-66,097 |
7,568 |
-34,726 |
-37,640 |
|
RBOB Gasoline |
-85,987 |
-10,453 |
-52,727 |
-57,408 |
|
Natural gas |
111,345 |
228,910 |
157,006 |
164,598 |
|
Copper |
-36,201 |
1,793 |
-2,547 |
-3,168 |
|
Gold |
-302,740 |
-193,197 |
-217,237 |
-206,949 |
|
Platinum |
-34,909 |
-15,759 |
-24,224 |
-25,435 |
|
Silver |
-65,413 |
-34,017 |
-34,959 |
-34,017 |
Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...
Fundamentals
Live Cattle fundamental outlook — Bull market correction — Cattle prices are correcting lower from record highs as supplies increase. Prices had risen to an all-time high on:
- The Jan. 28 USDA quarterly cattle report showing the total U.S. cattle herd at a 53-year low.
- Strong foreign demand with U.S. beef exports up +18.9% y/y in 2010.
Cattle on Feed Report (May 20) — Bearish — Cattle on feed as of May 1 were 107% of the year-earlier level, while cattle placed on feed in April rose to 111% of the year-earlier level vs. March’s 102%.
Cold Storage (May 20) — Neutral — April beef cold storage stocks were down –0.6% m/m and up +19.8% y/y.
Proceed to Page 4 for daily and weekly Hog charts...
Lean Hogs fundamental outlook — Bull market correction — The longer-term trend in hog prices remains bullish as prices correct lower from recent record highs posted on expectations of strong foreign demand from Japan and South Korea. The quarterly Hogs & Pigs report (March 25) showed a +0.5% increase in the hog-breeding herd to 5.788 mln sows, but record feed prices are likely to cause herd reductions going forward.
Quarterly Hogs & Pigs (March 25) — Bearish — U.S. hog inventory rose +0.6% y/y to 63.964 million hogs and the U.S. hog-breeding herd as of March 1 increase +0.5% y/y to 5.788 million sows.
Cold Storage (May 20) — Neutral — April pork cold storage stocks fell -5.0% m/m and rose +12.8% y/y.
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