With the official BBQ season underway, exactly where are meat prices headed?

Market Pulse: May 31, 2011

Last week June Live Cattle opened at 104.150 and closed the week at 104.100, no big difference there. However, it is a big difference from the all-time high opening on April 4 at 121.525. Viewing the daily charts below, you will see the OI started dropping in April (see COT on weekly chart), ADX at 63 reflects a very strong trend, MACD is bearish but has been losing divergence, and Stocahstics look to be correcting from oversold territory. Fundamentals for now are turning bearish. In “big money” movement, the Commercials (legacy report) went from -10,388 contracts net-short to -7,220 contracts net-short (a 52-week high). See the weekly charts below for a better view of “big money” in the disaggregated report.

Last week June Lean Hogs (think BBQ ribs here) opened at 9150 and closed the week at 8892½. Hogs have dropped considerably since hitting their high on April 1 at 104.350. View the daily chart below to see a very similar technical picture as live cattle. In hogs we see dropping OI, ADX at 49 reflecting a strong trend, MACD is bearish with no divergence, and Stochastics still are oversold, but look to want to correct. Fundamentals, for now, are turning bearish. In the COT legacy we see the Commercials last week went from 1,778 contracts net-long to the most recent report show 11,552 net-long (also a 52-week high).

Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...

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