The trade is still concerned about persistent dryness in the hard red wheat region of Texas, Oklahoma, Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado and how it may affect yields. The trade is putting some weather premium back into the soft wheat market. A bulk of this wheat variety is grown in the Ohio River Valley and the Mississippi Valley. This part of the country has had 8+ inches above normal rainfall over the past 30 days. This has lead to lowering of yield potential due to disease and flood losses. Monday night's crop ratings showed that 44% of the winter wheat crop is now rated very poor to poor, while only 32% of the crop is rated good to excellent. The Northern Plains spring wheat planting continues to lag. Monday's planting progress report showed that 36% of the crop has been planted, still way behind the average for this time of year which is normally at 76%. This should be viewed friendly for the Minneapolis wheat contracts. The delayed planting looks like it has the millers nervous as the spring wheat cash basis at record highs.
A Reuters news story stated that cash traders are paying as much as $14.30 a bushel for spring wheat. According to the Canadian Wheat Board, the farmers in the Western Provence of Albert have 20% of their crop in. This is up from 4% last week. Farmers in areas of Eastern Saskatchewan, South Central, and South Eastern Manitoba have just started to plant. Most areas of these regions will need at least one more week of dry weather before they can start planting. Europe missed out on expected rains over the weekend and that has traders concerned about their crop potential…Jim McCormick
Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is a Sr. Broker at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com.