Corn, soybean, wheat traders eye floods, weather

Corn: It was predictable to find a bounce in the corn market based on the news over the weekend of flooding more acres. Obviously, no one really knows how many of the flooded acres were corn producing, but this was bullish old crop news. With most of the wet weather being in the south, early corn harvesting areas are still the ones impacted the most. The flooding will continue to suggest that areas able to get early September harvest will be very limited.

Now let’s take Monday's trade on a larger scale and look at the July corn chart. Even though July ended on a strong note, the near-term downtrend line was still not taken out. With that line crossing Monday around 715, it is quite possible that old crop will be through it as early as tomorrow so give that market just one more day before jumping on the bullish bandwagon. December corn is slightly different with the downtrend line around 655. This gives the new crop more room to the upside before breaking out.

Once again, there is no argument with the bullish news seen Monday, we simply want to avoid the 20 cent higher days that are followed by near limit down the next day. There will be time to turn bullish when each proper line is taken out. Trade went through the day expecting a planting number around the 60% level. Whether it is good or bad, 20+ cent moves in this market are becoming more common and we should look at longer-term outlooks rather than get caught up in single day excitement…Ryan Ettner

Beans broke late in the session Monday after most of the markets sold off. Corn and wheat tried to hold beans higher but were unsuccessful as crude slipped more than $2. Monday's soy crush numbers from NOPA were negative as well. April crush was reported at 121.330 million bushels and below the average guess of 133.19. That is 6.5 million less than the trade expectation. It will be hard to buy this market with bearish numbers like these.

Traders are also looking at the potential acreage to shift from corn to beans as weather and flooding remain a concern. We are going to continue to watch the energies and the dollar as an indicator for direction over the next few weeks. Most of the fundamentals are out the window right now as money flow takes center stage. If the dollar can push higher we may have more downside before the summer rally…Steve Georgy

Wheat: Monday trade was all about weather and weakness in the U.S. dollar. The market surged to the day’s highs early in the trade. At one time, the July Chicago contract traded 20 cents higher on the day. It settled 7 1/4 higher on the session. Outside weakness in the energy markets seemed to put pressure on the wheat pit late in the session.

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