Corn: After some tough days to end last week, the general commodity thought for Monday was that most markets would find a bounce. That was the talk coming into the morning, which held true for the outside markets and corn quickly followed on thin volume. Crude needed a $5 bounce simply to get to the first retracement level, which it easily managed, so the next question is if this is more than a simple retracement. Corn was not an overly active follower of the crude lower but was quick to jump along with the bounce. Part of that could have to do with the thin trade. Beyond all this, we have much more important factors in the short time ahead…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: One full week of selling sparks new buying interest on overdone ideas. Funds were buyers Monday of 3,000 contracts. Volume was light and the July contract traded in less than a 20 cent range. Planting progress was out, and the trade was looking for a range between 5%-7% complete. USDA’s number was 7% and should already be factored in the market. Wednesday is the USDA Supply and Demand report as well as Crop Production. That should have more market influence if we see some wild numbers. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a neutral report and don’t see many revisions on this one. Fundamentals have been on the sidelines lately, and money flow has been the biggest concern. After a big selling week like we had, we expect to see more of a recovery if crude oil and other energies stay strong. We are looking for some choppy trade tomorrow as traders get in position for Wednesday…Steve Georgy
Wheat: The wheat bulls came back to the market in a big way Monday. Kansas City and Minneapolis led the way up. The KC July contract traded 46 cents higher at one time. It settled 40-1/2 higher for the session. The Minneapolis contract traded 46-3/4 higher for the session and closed 41 cents higher for the session. Triple digit temperatures with wind over the weekend in the Southern Plains really put the hurt on the crop. The Northern Plains continue to get too much rain, delaying the planting of the spring wheat. The dry weather is forecast to continue in the plains for the next two weeks while the spring wheat belt does not look to dry out until May 19 at the earliest.
On the world front, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Northern Italy and Scandinavia all are have dryness concerns that could lead to lower yields. The outside markets were also supportive as they rebounded after last week's sell off. Crude oil traded as much as $6 higher at one time, while gold was up $20+ and silver was $2.50+ higher on the session.
Monday night’s crop ratings and planting progress out after the close came in supportive. They should the good to excellent rating for winter wheat fell to 33% while the poor to very poor were up 44%. The spring plantings came in at 22% vs. 65% planted at this time last year and 61% on average. North Dakota is only 1% planted vs. 51% on average for this time of year. South Dakota has 22% of the crop in compared to 85% on average…Jim McCormick
Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is a Sr. Broker at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com.