In the July 2010 issue, Futures contributor Arthur Field introduced a simple indicator based on the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI). Field has written several provocative articles illustrating how certain economic indicators can be used to signal trading opportunities.
The July article, “How ISM PMI can forecast S&P 500” gives a buy/sell indicator based on the index and on May 2 reading for April it turned down at a level over 60. That signals a short in the SP 500.
As noted in the article, these signals on the short side may be premature, but they do tend to be long run accurate.The last buy was given in December, 2008.