So where does the S&P go from here?

Market Pulse: May 2, 2010

COT Data

In the Commitment of Traders report, we see that commercials are net-long 166,454 contracts. This is the difference between their long positions at 2,087,003 contracts and their short positions of 1,920,549 contracts. Large speculators are net-short -6,278 contracts, the difference between longs of 385,750 contracts and shorts of 392,028 contracts. And finally, small speculators (non-reportables) are net-short -160,176 contracts, the difference of longs at 394,837 contracts and shorts of 234,661 contracts. You see by these numbers who really moves this market. You also can see this on the weekly chart below.

I am hearing many “experts” compare 2011 to 2008. You can see for yourself on the monthly chart below. Price action is far different between the two first quarters. One major obstacle for the S&P is the fact the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) ends in June. We will see if the market can stand on its own without the government’s stimulus. If not, will we see QE3? I, for one, hope not. Have a great week. Of course yesterdays killing of Osama Bin Laden by U.S. Navy SEALS will help the S&P move up. We (Americans) will feel good about this. We finally got the guy. Go USA!

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

29-Apr

25-Apr

Cattle (feed)

-2,081

7,100

617

205

Cattle (live)

-73,179

-17,850

-24,349

-30,757

Hogs

-35,979

836

-28,206

-33,819

Corn

-413,915

119,389

-413,915

-386,344

Oats

-7,738

829

-5,998

-5,221

Soybeans

-203,260

34,246

-104,509

-107,150

Soybean meal

-90,487

-32,915

-44,578

-32,915

Soybean oil

-117,444

32,394

-81,359

-91,150

Wheat

-32,577

74,638

-7,740

-4,559

Orange juice

-18,285

-6,588

-14,597

-14,904

Coffee

-47,729

-7,801

-38,498

-38,158

Cocoa

-41,808

8,586

-21,898

-21,827

Sugar

-221,694

-104,983

-115,112

-117,448

Cotton

-69,857

-12,970

-28,246

-26,984

British pound

-66,435

97,211

-56,162

-46,260

Canada dollar

-115,190

-13,109

-97,647

-99,565

Euro FX

-89,333

124,494

-89,333

-80,728

Japanese yen

-52,533

92,866

53,926

74,250

Swiss franc

-42,387

27,482

-35,743

-37,034

US dollar index

-32,653

14,003

5,283

6,391

Mexican Peso

-140,414

-14,488

-138,648

-140,414

Australian dollar

-110,025

-10,793

-99,133

-102,098

S&P 500

-88,893

33,981

-64,247

-49,703

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

256,704

148,846

166,320

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

88,803

38,506

68,062

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

105,872

-405,516

-238,916

Crude oil

-319,669

-23,057

-291,450

-295,164

Heating oil

-66,097

7,568

-45,250

-40,550

RBOB Gasoline

-91,597

-10,453

-73,620

-74,882

Natural gas

111,345

228,910

157,313

169,849

Copper

-36,201

1,793

-26,426

-26,893

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-248,994

-266,548

Platinum

-34,909

-15,759

-29,332

-27,079

Silver

-65,413

-42,534

-42,534

-52,692

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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