The U.S. economic outlook and strong first quarter earnings have pushed the S&P to new highs. Last week the June E-mini opened at 1330.50 and closed the week at 1359.75. Keep in mind that on March 16 this contract closed at 1254.00. Over 100 points in six weeks with a small correction mid April; not bad. Since April 11, of the 269 companies in the S&P that have reported earnings, 77% have beaten analysts’ estimates. In 2011, we also have seen an increase in mergers and acquisitions. The latest announced today; one for $3.4B and the other for $6.8B. Money seems to be moving. You will see on the daily chart below that Stochastics are overbought, but with ADX at 43 and MACD bullish, I am not so concerned at this time. We will see how this week’s earnings look.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...COT Data
In the Commitment of Traders report, we see that commercials are net-long 166,454 contracts. This is the difference between their long positions at 2,087,003 contracts and their short positions of 1,920,549 contracts. Large speculators are net-short -6,278 contracts, the difference between longs of 385,750 contracts and shorts of 392,028 contracts. And finally, small speculators (non-reportables) are net-short -160,176 contracts, the difference of longs at 394,837 contracts and shorts of 234,661 contracts. You see by these numbers who really moves this market. You also can see this on the weekly chart below.
I am hearing many “experts” compare 2011 to 2008. You can see for yourself on the monthly chart below. Price action is far different between the two first quarters. One major obstacle for the S&P is the fact the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) ends in June. We will see if the market can stand on its own without the government’s stimulus. If not, will we see QE3? I, for one, hope not. Have a great week. Of course yesterdays killing of Osama Bin Laden by U.S. Navy SEALS will help the S&P move up. We (Americans) will feel good about this. We finally got the guy. Go USA!
|
Commodity |
12-mo low |
12-mo hi |
29-Apr |
25-Apr |
|
Cattle (feed) |
-2,081 |
7,100 |
617 |
205 |
|
Cattle (live) |
-73,179 |
-17,850 |
-24,349 |
-30,757 |
|
Hogs |
-35,979 |
836 |
-28,206 |
-33,819 |
|
Corn |
-413,915 |
119,389 |
-413,915 |
-386,344 |
|
Oats |
-7,738 |
829 |
-5,998 |
-5,221 |
|
Soybeans |
-203,260 |
34,246 |
-104,509 |
-107,150 |
|
Soybean meal |
-90,487 |
-32,915 |
-44,578 |
-32,915 |
|
Soybean oil |
-117,444 |
32,394 |
-81,359 |
-91,150 |
|
Wheat |
-32,577 |
74,638 |
-7,740 |
-4,559 |
|
Orange juice |
-18,285 |
-6,588 |
-14,597 |
-14,904 |
|
Coffee |
-47,729 |
-7,801 |
-38,498 |
-38,158 |
|
Cocoa |
-41,808 |
8,586 |
-21,898 |
-21,827 |
|
Sugar |
-221,694 |
-104,983 |
-115,112 |
-117,448 |
|
Cotton |
-69,857 |
-12,970 |
-28,246 |
-26,984 |
|
British pound |
-66,435 |
97,211 |
-56,162 |
-46,260 |
|
Canada dollar |
-115,190 |
-13,109 |
-97,647 |
-99,565 |
|
Euro FX |
-89,333 |
124,494 |
-89,333 |
-80,728 |
|
Japanese yen |
-52,533 |
92,866 |
53,926 |
74,250 |
|
Swiss franc |
-42,387 |
27,482 |
-35,743 |
-37,034 |
|
US dollar index |
-32,653 |
14,003 |
5,283 |
6,391 |
|
Mexican Peso |
-140,414 |
-14,488 |
-138,648 |
-140,414 |
|
Australian dollar |
-110,025 |
-10,793 |
-99,133 |
-102,098 |
|
S&P 500 |
-88,893 |
33,981 |
-64,247 |
-49,703 |
|
T-note -10 yr |
-74,761 |
256,704 |
148,846 |
166,320 |
|
T-bond -30 yr |
-43,324 |
88,803 |
38,506 |
68,062 |
|
Eurodollar |
-1,179,414 |
105,872 |
-405,516 |
-238,916 |
|
Crude oil |
-319,669 |
-23,057 |
-291,450 |
-295,164 |
|
Heating oil |
-66,097 |
7,568 |
-45,250 |
-40,550 |
|
RBOB Gasoline |
-91,597 |
-10,453 |
-73,620 |
-74,882 |
|
Natural gas |
111,345 |
228,910 |
157,313 |
169,849 |
|
Copper |
-36,201 |
1,793 |
-26,426 |
-26,893 |
|
Gold |
-302,740 |
-193,197 |
-248,994 |
-266,548 |
|
Platinum |
-34,909 |
-15,759 |
-29,332 |
-27,079 |
|
Silver |
-65,413 |
-42,534 |
-42,534 |
-52,692 |
Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...
Fundamentals
Fundamental outlook — Bullish — The trend in stock prices is bullish on strong company earnings results, continued record Fed stimulus measures, optimism about the 2011 economy with the payroll tax cut, improved consumer spending and strong M&A activity. While those bullish factors are still in play, the market is concerned from rising fuel prices, the European debt crisis, the Japanese disaster and uncertainty about the impact of monetary tightening in China and Europe. The S&P 500 is trading at a reasonable forward P/E of 13.8 (vs. the 5-yr avg of 14.9 and 10-yr avg of 16.7). That leaves room on the upside for a renewed rally.
What state here in the United States is the fourth (4th) largest oil producer? ANSWER — North Dakota
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