COT Data

In the Commitment of Traders report, we see that commercials are net-long 166,454 contracts. This is the difference between their long positions at 2,087,003 contracts and their short positions of 1,920,549 contracts. Large speculators are net-short -6,278 contracts, the difference between longs of 385,750 contracts and shorts of 392,028 contracts. And finally, small speculators (non-reportables) are net-short -160,176 contracts, the difference of longs at 394,837 contracts and shorts of 234,661 contracts. You see by these numbers who really moves this market. You also can see this on the weekly chart below.

I am hearing many “experts” compare 2011 to 2008. You can see for yourself on the monthly chart below. Price action is far different between the two first quarters. One major obstacle for the S&P is the fact the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) ends in June. We will see if the market can stand on its own without the government’s stimulus. If not, will we see QE3? I, for one, hope not. Have a great week. Of course yesterdays killing of Osama Bin Laden by U.S. Navy SEALS will help the S&P move up. We (Americans) will feel good about this. We finally got the guy. Go USA!

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...