Corn: When trade ended Friday last week, the big question at hand was if we would still have all the bullish factors in place on Monday. With no change to weather and bullish speculators back into this market, there is little reason to expect a change in trend now. Corn’s tight stocks situation is not an issue that will suddenly disappear. This will give long-term traders reason to stay in this market or enter new long positions. That is why the old-crop corn continues to lead the way. New-crop corn will be based on weather issues for now. Monday's forecast offered little change, which continues to suggest cooler than normal temperatures with above normal rainfall, especially for the northern areas. While current focus will be on the early planted areas in the south, a more important factor to watch will be northern areas, which will make up much of the added acres for this year…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: Beans were the punching bag Monday for spreaders as the May contract fell more than 10 cents. The funds were seen buying 25,000 contracts of corn, buying 8,000 contracts of wheat, and selling 8,000 contracts of beans. Corn and wheat had good fundamental reasons for a bounce today, but beans lacked news. You still need to be bullish on beans if you are bullish corn and wheat. No major changes to the forecast in South America. They are still looking at net drying over the next few weeks and should keep harvest at a good pace. No fundamental news to talk about today, but keep an eye on the technicals. A move above 1432 could be pretty bullish on the charts…Steve Georgy
Wheat: The weather has officially moved to the major concern of the wheat market today. Temperatures exceeded 90+ degrees over the weekend in parts of the hard red wheat belt. These hot temperatures are sapping what little moisture that was in the ground away fast. I had several customers tell me the dirt was really blowing this weekend on their wheat ground. The near-term forecast will leave the plains dry and in need of significant rain soon. The lack of moisture is showing up in the first crop ratings of the year…Jim McCormick
Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is a Sr. Broker at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com.
