Did Japanese “demand destruction” cause corn and beans to drop last week? Or was it something else?

Market Pulse: Mar. 21, 2011

COT Data

Looking at the Commitment of Traders legacy report, we see that commercials showed a 52-week low in net-shorts for corn on February 11 at -408,170 contracts and this past week came in net-short at -331,506 contracts. What is even more transparent is the disaggregated report which shows producers (true commercials) had an actual net-short position of -672,211 contracts on the March 4 report and as of this past Friday, March 18, were net short -581,854 contracts. That is a drop of 90,357 contracts in two weeks. You can also see what Managed Money and our friends the Swap Dealers did in their positions over the past few weeks.

In the legacy report for soybeans, we see commercials going from a 52-week net-short low of -203,260 contracts on January 21 to -128,082 contracts.

Look at the disaggregated report to see a much more transparent view of how the real “big money” is moving around. Remember the COT is not a timing tool. It is however the best way to watch the “elephants” in the room. Also remember that on March 31 the USDA will be releasing the 2011 Perspective Plantings report. Predictions sound bearish, but we will see.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

18-Mar

11-Mar

Cattle (feed)

-2,917

7,100

88

1,197

Cattle (live)

-73,179

-18,177

-25,680

-33,938

Hogs

-38,039

836

-28,014

-33,979

Corn

-408,170

119,389

-331,506

-380,200

Oats

-7,738

829

-5,177

-5,964

Soybeans

-203,260

49,094

-128,082

-148,871

Soybean meal

-90,487

-14,070

-42,592

-49,439

Soybean oil

-117,444

32,394

-71,780

-88,643

Wheat

-32,577

76,473

-5,123

-6,343

Orange juice

-18,285

-6,588

-16,168

-18,123

Coffee

-47,729

-4,637

-30,386

-38,622

Cocoa

-41,808

8,586

-35,632

-41,808

Sugar

-221,694

-104,983

-175,230

-208,312

Cotton

-69,857

-12,970

-29,686

-35,986

British pound

-66,435

97,211

-8,512

-48,233

Canada dollar

-115,190

-13,109

-90,828

-115,190

Euro FX

-74,393

124,494

-63,634

-74,393

Japanese yen

-52,533

92,866

-27,402

-8,212

Swiss franc

-42,387

27,482

-42,387

-41,437

US dollar index

-39,311

14,003

14,003

6,279

Mexican Peso

-126,921

-14,488

-126,921

-120,164

Australian dollar

-102,706

-10,793

-61,333

-95,280

S&P 500

-88,893

33,981

12,952

-17,309

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

356,573

172,544

154,343

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

151,936

45,524

47,252

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

105,872

-239,465

10,085

Crude oil

-319,669

-23,057

-310,203

-317,064

Heating oil

-66,097

7,568

-46,239

-38,780

RBOB gasoline

-91,597

-10,453

-73,485

-76,691

Natural gas

111,345

228,910

215,788

224,972

Copper

-36,201

1,793

-22,500

-25,929

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-220,154

-247,464

Platinum

-34,909

-15,759

-23,319

-31,618

Silver

-65,413

-43,146

-53,421

-55,350

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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