Acreage projections are in. Will corn and cotton drop?

Market Pulse: Mar. 14, 2011

COT Data

In the COT report, we see with the legacy report that in corn Commercials went from 405,010 net-short last week to 380,200 net-short this past Friday. In the disaggregated report, producers (true commercials) went from 672,211 net-short to 646,965 net-short. Swap dealers went from 267,201 net-long to 266,765 net-long, and managed money went from 409,444 net-long to 386,082 net-long. For cotton, commercials went from 36,390 net-short to 35,986 net-short, not a huge drop. However in the disaggregated report producers (true commercials) were 70,768 net-short two weeks ago and in the most recent report this past Friday are 60,324 net-short. Look at the weekly charts to see where the COT was in 2008 for corn’s all time high.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

11-Mar

4-Mar

Cattle (feed)

-2,917

7,100

1,197

1,334

Cattle (live)

-73,179

-18,177

-33,938

-31,288

Hogs

-38,039

836

-33,979

-34,851

Corn

-408,170

119,389

-380,200

-405,010

Oats

-7,738

829

-5,964

-6,189

Soybeans

-203,260

56,797

-148,871

-136,125

Soybean meal

-90,487

-6,350

-49,439

-49,004

Soybean oil

-117,444

32,394

-88,643

-80,176

Wheat

-32,577

76,473

-6,343

-7,620

Orange juice

-18,722

-6,588

-18,123

-17,392

Coffee

-47,729

-4,637

-38,622

-34,961

Cocoa

-41,808

8,586

-41,808

-38,511

Sugar

-221,694

-104,983

-208,312

-181,856

Cotton

-69,857

-12,970

-35,986

-36,390

British pound

-66,435

97,211

-48,233

-39,233

Canada dollar

-115,190

-13,109

-115,190

-106,282

Euro FX

-74,393

124,494

-74,393

-63,130

Japanese yen

-52,533

92,866

-8,212

-31,862

Swiss franc

-41,437

27,482

-41,437

-32,915

US dollar index

-39,311

6,816

6,279

6,816

Mexican Peso

-120,164

-14,488

-120,164

-102,818

Australian dollar

-102,706

-10,793

-95,280

-92,491

S&P 500

-88,893

33,981

-17,309

-20,549

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

356,573

154,343

135,630

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

151,936

47,252

50,037

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

105,872

10,085

81,781

Crude oil

-319,669

-23,057

-317,064

-319,669

Heating oil

-66,097

7,568

-38,780

-38,696

RBOB Gasoline

-91,597

-10,453

-76,691

-74,294

Natural gas

111,345

228,910

224,972

228,910

Copper

-36,201

1,793

-25,929

-27,951

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-247,464

-250,596

Platinum

-34,909

-15,759

-31,618

-32,380

Silver

-65,413

-43,146

-55,350

-56,460

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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