Last week, May 2011 corn opened the week at 728.50 and closed the week at 664.25. May 2011 cotton opened the week at 213.75 and closed the week at 204.94. Nice drops for both markets. For corn, acreage projections are for 92.5 million acres for 2011. Last year acreage for corn was 88.8 million acres. For cotton, acreage projections are for 12.5 million acres. Last year the United States planted 10 million acres of cotton. In 2006 the United States planted 15 million acres and by 2009 dropped 6 million to 9 million acres planted. On March 31 the USDA will release the 2011 Perspective Plantings report. That will confirm these projections. Of course, if we see higher acreage numbers than above, it will affect these markets and keep the bears happy.
Total increased acreage for the United States is projected at 9.8 million acres for all markets
Technically, for corn the four- and nine-day EMA have crossed below the 18-day EMA. ADX numbers are rising and DI- is well over DI+. MACD is bearish and Stochastics now are oversold. For cotton, we have not seen the four- or nine-day EMA cross over the 18-day EMA. DI+ is still over DI- but is dropping, as is ADX. MACD has crossed the signal line down. Stochastics are mid-range and bearish.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT data...
In the COT report, we see with the legacy report that in corn Commercials went from 405,010 net-short last week to 380,200 net-short this past Friday. In the disaggregated report, producers (true commercials) went from 672,211 net-short to 646,965 net-short. Swap dealers went from 267,201 net-long to 266,765 net-long, and managed money went from 409,444 net-long to 386,082 net-long. For cotton, commercials went from 36,390 net-short to 35,986 net-short, not a huge drop. However in the disaggregated report producers (true commercials) were 70,768 net-short two weeks ago and in the most recent report this past Friday are 60,324 net-short. Look at the weekly charts to see where the COT was in 2008 for corn’s all time high.
| Commodity |
12-mo low |
12-mo hi |
11-Mar |
4-Mar |
|
Cattle (feed) |
-2,917 |
7,100 |
1,197 |
1,334 |
|
Cattle (live) |
-73,179 |
-18,177 |
-33,938 |
-31,288 |
|
Hogs |
-38,039 |
836 |
-33,979 |
-34,851 |
|
Corn |
-408,170 |
119,389 |
-380,200 |
-405,010 |
|
Oats |
-7,738 |
829 |
-5,964 |
-6,189 |
|
Soybeans |
-203,260 |
56,797 |
-148,871 |
-136,125 |
|
Soybean meal |
-90,487 |
-6,350 |
-49,439 |
-49,004 |
|
Soybean oil |
-117,444 |
32,394 |
-88,643 |
-80,176 |
|
Wheat |
-32,577 |
76,473 |
-6,343 |
-7,620 |
|
Orange juice |
-18,722 |
-6,588 |
-18,123 |
-17,392 |
|
Coffee |
-47,729 |
-4,637 |
-38,622 |
-34,961 |
|
Cocoa |
-41,808 |
8,586 |
-41,808 |
-38,511 |
|
Sugar |
-221,694 |
-104,983 |
-208,312 |
-181,856 |
|
Cotton |
-69,857 |
-12,970 |
-35,986 |
-36,390 |
|
British pound |
-66,435 |
97,211 |
-48,233 |
-39,233 |
|
Canada dollar |
-115,190 |
-13,109 |
-115,190 |
-106,282 |
|
Euro FX |
-74,393 |
124,494 |
-74,393 |
-63,130 |
|
Japanese yen |
-52,533 |
92,866 |
-8,212 |
-31,862 |
|
Swiss franc |
-41,437 |
27,482 |
-41,437 |
-32,915 |
|
US dollar index |
-39,311 |
6,816 |
6,279 |
6,816 |
|
Mexican Peso |
-120,164 |
-14,488 |
-120,164 |
-102,818 |
|
Australian dollar |
-102,706 |
-10,793 |
-95,280 |
-92,491 |
|
S&P 500 |
-88,893 |
33,981 |
-17,309 |
-20,549 |
|
T-note -10 yr |
-74,761 |
356,573 |
154,343 |
135,630 |
|
T-bond -30 yr |
-43,324 |
151,936 |
47,252 |
50,037 |
|
Eurodollar |
-1,179,414 |
105,872 |
10,085 |
81,781 |
|
Crude oil |
-319,669 |
-23,057 |
-317,064 |
-319,669 |
|
Heating oil |
-66,097 |
7,568 |
-38,780 |
-38,696 |
|
RBOB Gasoline |
-91,597 |
-10,453 |
-76,691 |
-74,294 |
|
Natural gas |
111,345 |
228,910 |
224,972 |
228,910 |
|
Copper |
-36,201 |
1,793 |
-25,929 |
-27,951 |
|
Gold |
-302,740 |
-193,197 |
-247,464 |
-250,596 |
|
Platinum |
-34,909 |
-15,759 |
-31,618 |
-32,380 |
|
Silver |
-65,413 |
-43,146 |
-55,350 |
-56,460 |
Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...
Corn fundamental outlook — Medium-term bullish — Corn prices fell back from a 2-1/2 year high on long liquidation pressure, the rise in ethanol inventories and the USDA’s hike in its global carry-over estimates. However, the trend remains bullish as the USDA predicts U.S. corn supplies may be restricted for at least the next year or two as the corn market tries to recover from the very tight U.S. supply situation. The corn stocks/use ratios are extremely tight with the U.S. stocks/use ratio of 5.0% matching the seven-decade low posted in 1995-96 and the world stocks/use ratio at 14.6%.
Cotton fundamental outlook — Bullish — Cotton prices are bullish on concerns that global supplies may not satisfy Chinese demand, and the USDA cut in its global production estimate global carry-over estimate to a 15-year low of 42.33 mln bales. The world stocks/use ratio of less than 37% this year is the lowest since 1993-1994.
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