Oil prices break as more sweet crude available

The EIA said that, "WTI and other crude oil spot prices have risen about $15 per barrel since mid-February partly in response to the disruption of crude oil exports from Libya. Continuing unrest in Libya as well as other North African and Middle Eastern countries has led to the highest crude oil prices since 2008. As a result, EIA has raised its forecast for the average cost of crude oil to refiners to $105 per barrel in 2011, $14 higher than in the previous outlook. However, EIA has raised its 2011 forecast for WTI by only $9 per barrel to $102 per barrel because of the projected continued price discount for this type of crude compared with other crudes."

The EIA also had a stark warning on gas prices. They said, "The recent rapid increase in spot crude and gasoline prices has led to a significant rise in retail product prices. Motorists currently experiencing a jump in pump prices will likely see further increases from now through the spring since the recent increase in crude oil prices has not yet been fully passed through to gasoline prices. EIA expects the retail price of regular-grade motor gasoline to average $3.56 per gallon in 2011, 77 cents per gallon higher than the 2010 average and about 40 cents above the projected price in the previous Outlook. EIA projects gasoline prices to average about $3.70 per gallon during the peak driving season (April through September) with considerable regional and local variation. There is also significant uncertainty surrounding the forecast, with the current market prices of futures and options contracts for gasoline suggesting a 25-percent probability that the national monthly average retail price for regular gasoline could exceed $4.00 per gallon during summer 2011. Rising crude oil prices are the primary reason for higher retail prices, but higher refining margins are also expected to be a contributing factor."

Still the stock market liked the break in oil and the momentary stability it brought. Stock traders at this point do not really care what the price of oil is, but just that it's steady. Sharply rising prices hurt but if they stabilize at higher levels, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates decreases dramatically.

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

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About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.


Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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