Crude Oil: Are we headed to inflated 2008 levels?

Market Pulse: Mar. 1, 2011

COT Data

More disturbing to me is that looking at the Disaggregated COT report you will find that True Commercials are net short -217,532 contracts and Swap Dealers are net short (have not seen this before) -41,365 contracts. Remember in futures there must be buyers and sellers. You really need to understand what is happening. Could we see $147 this year? Anything is possible, and the buying and selling is there to push this market to where ever big money wants it. Is supply and demand really an issue? Or is it speculation on the possibility of a supply problem? You be the judge.

You can follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TrendsinFutures.

Commodity

12-mo low

12-mo hi

25-Feb

18-Feb

Cattle (feed)

-2,917

7,100

1,164

877

Cattle (live)

-73,179

-18,177

-32,658

-31,772

Hogs

-38,039

836

-34,777

-34,636

Corn

-408,170

119,389

-403,757

-407,795

Oats

-7,738

829

-7,738

-7,416

Soybeans

-203,260

56,797

-143,663

-177,574

Soybean meal

-90,487

-6,350

-56,059

-72,241

Soybean oil

-117,444

32,394

-66,681

-91,423

Wheat

-32,577

76,473

-10,008

-21,061

Orange juice

-18,722

-6,588

-16,687

-13,784

Coffee

-47,729

-4,637

-40,485

-41,624

Cocoa

-36,942

8,586

-36,942

-34,191

Sugar

-221,694

-104,983

-184,671

-191,183

Cotton

-69,857

-12,970

-41,880

-43,495

British pound

-66,435

97,211

-47,103

-66,435

Canada dollar

-105,107

-13,109

-101,129

-101,826

Euro FX

-62,835

124,494

-53,834

-42,313

Japanese yen

-52,533

92,866

40,480

33,512

Swiss franc

-33,169

27,482

-18,403

-17,059

US dollar index

-41,135

6,036

3,724

3,662

Mexican Peso

-120,059

-14,488

-120,059

-114,613

Australian dollar

-102,706

-10,793

-84,193

-85,274

S&P 500

-88,893

33,981

-14,429

-18,549

T-note -10 yr

-74,761

356,573

229,611

196,502

T-bond -30 yr

-43,324

151,936

55,190

72,278

Eurodollar

-1,179,414

105,872

-15,542

65,679

Crude oil

-258,897

-23,057

-258,897

-216,556

Heating oil

-66,097

7,568

-50,406

-52,592

RBOB gasoline

-91,597

-10,453

-76,151

-74,135

Natural gas

111,345

223,838

223,838

208,636

Copper

-36,201

1,793

-28,534

-33,673

Gold

-302,740

-193,197

-231,806

-218,626

Platinum

-34,909

-15,759

-32,928

-33,350

Silver

-65,413

-40,490

-57,793

-55,047

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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