Commodity dollar demand revives as risk rebounds

Canadian dollar – The Canadian dollar broke new ground on a data-free Friday as investors continue to look at the elevated price of oil provides a tonic. The move seems at odds with the theory that rising oil prices will depress global growth and especially so given the nation’s reliance on the U.S. consumer, and perhaps the biggest casualty of Middle East unrest. The Canadian dollar might have found further wind beneath its wings as pre-market stock index futures staged a health rebound after two days of heavy selling. The Canadian unit rose to buy $1.0200 U.S. cents.

Aussie dollar – The Aussie rebounded in sympathy with its bedfellow commodity friend of the Canadian dollar and reached $1.0144 U.S. cents and still below a high at $1.0155 set a week ago. So the Aussie still has a little way to go even before it can challenge the record $1.0250 high set at the end of 2010. The rebound in the Aussie compares to a poor week for Asian dollars where an index shows they suffered their heaviest losses against the greenback since the first week in January. Investors are clearly trying to look beyond the rising oil price inspired by the Middle East unrest.

Euro – The single currency unit has given up a daily gain and appears to be gaining downside momentum heading into the U.S. GDP report. The euro had earlier traded at $1.3838, but following lackluster Eurozone money supply data along with a weak reading of French consumption, it has reached $1.3761 to stand at Thursday’s mid-point. January’s Eurozone-wide M3 reading of broad money showed a three-month average increase of 1.7% while the year-on-year pace of gain at 1.5% was lower than the December report. The readings possible indicate a slower pace of expansion ahead. A January gauge of French consumer spending decreased by 0.5% between months following a 0.4% pace of growth.

Andrew Wilkinson is a Senior Market Analyst at Interactive Brokers LLC

Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Interactive Brokers LLC nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither IB nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

About the Author
Andrew Wilkinson

Andrew is a seasoned trader and commentator of global financial markets. He worked for several London-based banks trading cash and derivatives before moving to the U.S. to attend graduate school. Andrew re-joins Interactive Brokers following a two-year stretch at a major Wall Street broker-dealer as their Chief Economic Strategist. His coverage of stocks, options, futures, forex and bonds regularly surfaces in global media, and over the last several years Andrew has made many TV appearances on Bloomberg, BBC, CNBC and BNN and Yahoo Finance.

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