WASDE report shows corn has potential to become “yellow gold” in 2011

Market Pulse: Feb. 14, 2011

COT Report

In the Commercial Tracker below, you see commercials from the old COT Legacy report at a 52-week low of 408,170 contracts net-short. To see how this number is broken down between producers (true commercials) and swap dealers, look at the Disaggregated COT on the weekly chart. There you will see exactly how the big money is moving in corn. Producers are actually net-short 657,865 contracts, swap dealers are net-long 249,695 contracts and managed money are net-long 383,597 contracts.

Looking at the July 2011 daily chart, you can see the trend is strong with ADX at 43. MACD is bullish, and Stochastics are extremely overbought. Remember, strong trending markets could remain overbought for some time. But I would keep an eye open for a possible correction. Look at the previous move up from late November into the first week of January. A breather may be in order. Another interesting point, the legacy report on the chart below shows small specs over 84,000 contracts net-short. Surprised? Have a prosperous trading week.

Commodity 12-mo low
12-mo hi
11-Feb
4-Feb
Cattle (feed) -2,917
7,100
715
-831
Cattle (live) -73,179
-18,177
-31,628
-28,839
Hogs -38,039
836
-31,866
-28,419
Corn -408,170
119,389
-408,170
-403,168
Oats -7,048
829
-7,048
-6,513
Soybeans -203,260
56,797
-202,008
-194,664
Soybean meal -90,487
-6,350
-82,242
-84,656
Soybean oil -117,444
32,394
-117,444
-105,566
Wheat -32,577
76,473
-32,577
-23,295
Orange juice -18,722
-6,588
-17,798
-17,523
Coffee -47,729
-4,637
-43,546
-44,923
Cocoa -35,701
8,586
-32,951
-29,841
Sugar -221,694
-104,983
-202,695
-221,694
Cotton -69,857
-12,970
-39,191
-46,785
British pound -34,723
97,211
-34,723
-32,356
Canada dollar -105,107
-13,109
-76,360
-66,237
Euro FX -62,835
124,494
-47,883
-46,401
Japanese yen -52,533
92,866
-28,940
-25,444
Swiss franc -33,169
27,482
-21,517
-21,719
US dollar index -41,395
6,036
6,036
2,168
Mexican Peso -118,008
-14,488
-110,315
-109,864
Australian dollar -102,706
-10,793
-91,086
-80,255
S&P 500 -88,893
33,981
-22,667
-29,592
T-note -10 yr -74,761
356,573
177,910
179,104
T-bond -30 yr -43,324
158,206
49,027
38,261
Eurodollar -1,179,414
105,872
41,528
-231,341
Crude oil -221,010
-23,057
-221,010
-196,780
Heating oil -66,097
7,568
-58,687
-61,838
Unleaded gas -91,597
-10,453
-79,817
-84,937
Natural gas 111,345
185,148
185,148
172,981
Copper -36,201
1,793
-33,230
-28,148
Gold -302,740
-193,197
-209,911
-193,197
Platinum -34,909
-15,759
-34,909
-34,140
Silver -65,413
-38,226
-51,117
-44,801

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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