Market trends positive, but questions linger

To suggest a negative longer-term market outlook, we would need to see CPFL begin to diverge from index pricing to the extent index prices moved higher while the indicator did not. Obviously such action has yet to develop.

Click charts to enlarge

Conclusion

The stock market posted more positive sessions last week for net gains all around. All of the major indexes made new highs for the move, poor Cumulative Volume relative to those late April 2010 highs notwithstanding. As a consequence, so long as the uptrends on both the minor and intermediate-term trends remain intact, we must assume that more gains could follow.

We suspect, however, that this rally on both cycles is getting a bit long in the tooth and that the two day downside threat which culminated in the intraday low back on January 28 may have been the first crack in the wall. To suggest a full blown short-term intermediate-term drawdown, however, we would need to see the short-term trend flip to negative with decisive action below 10-day price channels (see SELL STOP levels in table above). The staying power of the larger Intermediate Cycle would then be determined by how much short-term selling developed.

MAAD data for past 30 Weeks* CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

7-23-10

16

4

7-23-10

322870

174663

7-30-10

15

5

7-30-10

199970

217368

8-6-10

15

5

8-6-10

271701

115037

8-13-10

3

16

8-13-10

132060

409972

8-20-10

8

12

8-20-10

176830

488032

8-27-10

6

14

8-27-10

207995

222943

9-3-10

17

3

9-3-10

488323

102016

9-10-10

12

7

9-10-10

287697

82863

9-17-10

15

5

9-17-10

289703

112410

9-24-10

12

8

9-24-10

209124

100570

10-1-10

9

11

10-1-10

145020

121894

10-8-10

14

6

10-8-10

394156

98483

10-15-10

10

10

10-15-10

476975

115923

10-22-10

11

9

10-22-10

2575024

116468

10-29-10

10

10

10-29-10

376133

120924

11-5-10

13

7

11-5-10

547056

71345

11-12-10

5

15

11-12-10

203906

305387

11-19-10

7

13

11-19-10

241420

143672

11-26-10

5

15

11-26-10

116916

149196

12-3-10

16

4

12-3-10

701973

55878

12-10-10

15

5

12-10-10

395991

42814

12-17-10

9

11

12-17-10

441634

61008

12-24-10

17

3

12-24-10

177600

88159

12-31-10

16

4

12-31-10

154527

60647

1-7-11

16

4

1-7-11

458733

97512

1-14-11

12

7

1-14-11

327777

49317

1-21-11

5

15

1-21-11

376104

106618

1-28-11

6

14

1-28-11

227154

249822

2-4-11

17

3

2-4-11

590448

67646

2-11-11

13

7

2-11-11

514220

98361



*Note: All data is for week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday.
Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

MAAD data for past 30 days** CPFL data for past 30 Days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

12-31-10

15

5

12-31-10

26220

13820

1-3-11

16

4

1-3-11

134306

31093

1-4-11

12

7

1-4-11

140762

19483

1-5-11

16

3

1-5-11

78925

30698

1-6-11

7

13

1-6-11

97949

28157

1-7-11

10

10

1-7-11

48312

21874

1-10-11

9

11

1-10-11

29813

22327

1-11-11

8

12

1-11-11

21584

17753

1-12-11

17

3

1-12-11

147563

22003

1-13-11

6

14

1-13-11

54780

20758

1-14-11

15

5

1-14-11

39593

23222

1-17-11

Holiday

1-17-11

Holiday

1-18-11

7

12

1-18-11

98369

20105

1-19-11

5

14

1-19-11

35520

52589

1-20-11

10

10

1-20-11

48321

58809

1-21-11

15

5

1-21-11

239601

26839

1-24-11

12

8

1-24-11

71963

30755

1-25-11

6

13

1-25-11

64933

30082

1-26-11

8

12

1-26-11

96297

29774

1-27-11

13

7

1-27-11

39290

24578

1-28-11

6

14

1-28-11

49833

103507

1-31-11

14

6

1-31-11

241142

34874

2-1-11

14

6

2-1-11

120947

37779

2-2-11

8

12

2-2-11

133037

16643

2-3-11

9

9

2-3-11

28978

24133

2-4-11

9

11

2-4-11

121512

15259

2-7-11

14

5

2-7-11

92432

24561

2-8-11

13

7

2-8-11

94867

28120

2-9-11

10

10

2-9-11

147855

29984

2-10-11

6

14

2-10-11

133883

37629

2-11-11

12

7

2-11-11

63818

24031


**Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst, market timer and private investor based in New York City. If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This will take you to the MAAD article. Robert can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

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