With 52-week highs in softs, just how high can they go?

Market Pulse: Feb. 7, 2011

COT Data

In cotton, commercials are still adding to their net shorts at -46,785 contracts (older legacy report). Commercials are adding to their net shorts in Sugar and are now at a 52-week low of -221,694 contracts net short. Commercials in coffee are adding to their net shorts at -44,923 contracts. Cocoa commercials adding to their not shorts at -29,841 contracts.

Looking at the spreadsheet below, you can see just how close these numbers are to 52-week lows. On the weekly chart below, see exactly how the commercials’ legacy positions are broken out between swap dealers and the producers (true commercials). I have had a number of questions on whom to follow? If I had to pick one group I would say managed money, but this information is for analytical purposes. The disaggregated report is the most transparent for seeing how “big money” is moving around. (Historical data provided by the CRB 2011 Historical Desk Set). If you trade, you will find the desk set an invaluable tool. I do.

Keep in mind that Australia is the world’s third largest sugar exporter and fourth largest cotton export. Floods have destroyed much of their cotton, and storms have destroyed large areas of sugar cane. Their sugar output will be affected for two to three years.

You can follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TrendsinFutures .

Commodity 12-mo low
12-mo hi
4-Feb
28-Jan
Cattle (feed) -2,917
7,100
-831
-1,290
Cattle (live) -73,179
-18,177
-28,839
-31,328
Hogs -38,039
836
-28,419
-21,232
Corn -403,168
119,389
-403,168
-387,155
Oats -6,513
829
-6,513
-5,628
Soybeans -203,260
56,797
-194,664
-186,699
Soybean meal -90,487
-6,350
-84,656
-73,498
Soybean oil -111,786
32,394
-105,566
-81,521
Wheat -23,295
82,654
-23,295
-20,973
Orange juice -18,722
-6,588
-17,523
-18,285
Coffee -47,729
-4,637
-44,923
-41,391
Cocoa -35,701
8,586
-29,841
-24,456
Sugar -221,694
-104,983
-221,694
-199,293
Cotton -69,857
-12,970
-46,785
-43,105
British pound -32,356
97,211
-32,356
-15,400
Canada dollar -105,107
-13,109
-66,237
-64,699
Euro FX -62,835
124,494
-46,401
-28,088
Japanese yen -52,533
92,866
-25,444
-27,413
Swiss franc -33,169
27,482
-21,719
-15,882
US dollar index -44,673
2,587
2,168
-2,739
Mexican Peso -118,008
-14,488
-109,864
-101,899
Australian dollar -102,706
-10,793
-80,255
-62,135
S&P 500 -88,893
33,981
-29,592
-43,666
T-note -10 yr -74,761
356,573
179,104
174,149
T-bond -30 yr -43,324
158,206
38,261
19,198
Eurodollar -1,179,414
105,872
-231,341
-260,460
Crude oil -209,503
-23,057
-196,780
-186,754
Heating oil -66,097
7,568
-61,838
-56,873
Unleaded gas -91,597
-10,453
-84,937
-79,332
Natural gas 111,345
179,433
172,981
161,963
Copper -36,201
1,793
-28,148
-27,546
Gold -302,740
-193,197
-193,197
-197,483
Platinum -34,140
-15,759
-34,140
-33,434
Silver -65,413
-37,800
-44,801
-43,146

Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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