Wheat: Over $8 by year’s end?

Market Pulse: Dec. 20, 2010

COT data

Looking at the charts below, you will see some of the technicals weakening from last week’s price action. Take a good look at the weekly chart where you will see the Producers (true commercials) are adding to their net shorts and the Swap Dealers and the Manage Money traders are adding to their net longs. That is a good sign that we could see higher prices moving forward as it reflects rising OI and the posturing by the “big money” for prices moving higher. The COT report you are looking at is the newer Disaggregated COT; the old legacy report is nowhere near as transparent. And with all the games being played in the markets today by “big money,” you need greater transparency.

Commercial Net Tracker instructions:
This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

Commodity 12-mo low
12-mo hi
17-Dec
10-Dec
Cattle (feed) -2,917
7,100
2,171
2,382
Cattle (live) -73,179
-7,416
-44,824
-49,287
Hogs -38,039
836
-4,007
-5,829
Corn -373,558
119,389
-352,250
-340,358
Oats -5,237
829
-5,237
-4,357
Soybeans -183,110
56,797
-183,110
-179,802
Soybean meal -90,487
-6,350
-69,803
-69,098
Soybean oil -111,786
32,394
-78,459
-76,317
Wheat -16,413
82,654
673
11,120
Orange juice -22,027
-6,588
-16,617
-16,657
Coffee -47,729
-4,637
-41,166
-39,718
Cocoa -49,897
8,586
-13,544
-12,755
Sugar -241,259
-104,983
-184,379
-177,944
Cotton -69,857
-12,970
-41,231
-45,151
British pound -31,274
97,211
9,519
15,881
Canada dollar -105,107
-13,109
-61,683
-57,378
Euro FX -62,835
124,494
12,708
22,481
Japanese yen -52,533
92,866
-2,871
-18,823
Swiss franc -33,169
27,482
-16,351
-14,875
US dollar index -46,250
2,587
-6,604
-11,991
Mexican Peso -118,008
-14,488
-82,747
-64,557
Australian dollar -102,706
-10,793
-72,123
-60,451
S&P 500 -88,893
33,981
-87,896
-88,893
T-note -10 yr -74,761
356,573
41,204
97,689
T-bond -30 yr -43,324
158,206
13,333
5,302
Eurodollar -1,179,414
105,872
-209,192
-263,600
Crude oil -200,484
-23,057
-191,683
-200,484
Heating oil -69,179
7,568
-54,919
-59,580
Unleaded gas -91,597
-10,453
-81,722
-84,480
Natural gas 110,310
179,433
134,038
134,287
Copper -34,883
1,793
-34,846
-32,311
Gold -302,740
-207,691
-268,135
-278,673
Platinum -32,628
-15,759
-26,623
-27,627
Silver -65,413
-37,800
-48,136
-48,825

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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