Crude oil and those speculators

Market Pulse: Dec. 13, 2010

COT data

Looking at the Disaggregated COT, we see Managed Money adding to their net longs from 152,065 on the Dec. 3 report to 191,171 net longs this past Friday, adding 39,106 contracts net long. Producers (True Commercials) went from being net short 136,630 contracts to net short 149,334 contracts, adding 12,704 contracts net short. And the Swap Dealers, who were net long for a long time (see the weekly chart below), went from net short 35,965 contracts to 51,150 contracts net short, adding 15,185 contracts net short. Combined that is 66, 995 contracts added to OI. The $90 area will be a good test to see if crude can break through. My only question is with the swaps and their net shorts? Keep an eye on these guys as they are normally speculators in this market, not hedgers. We will have to see how this plays out.

Commercial Net Tracker instructions:
This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

Commodity 12-mo low
12-mo hi
10-Dec
3-Dec
Cattle (feed) -2,917
7,100
2,382
2,647
Cattle (live) -73,179
-3,106
-49,287
-46,454
Hogs -38,039
836
-5,829
-5,574
Corn -373,558
119,389
-340,358
-335,732
Oats -5,208
829
-4,357
-3,591
Soybeans -179,802
56,797
-179,802
-172,362
Soybean meal -90,487
-6,350
-69,098
-64,889
Soybean oil -111,786
32,394
-76,317
-69,326
Wheat -16,413
82,654
11,120
43,438
Orange juice -22,027
-6,588
-16,657
-13,666
Coffee -47,729
-4,637
-39,718
-35,214
Cocoa -49,897
8,586
-12,755
-1,662
Sugar -241,259
-104,983
-177,944
-173,856
Cotton -69,857
-12,970
-45,151
-48,338
British pound -31,274
97,211
15,881
6,929
Canada dollar -105,107
-13,109
-57,378
-41,661
Euro FX -62,835
124,494
22,481
1,998
Japanese yen -52,533
92,866
-18,823
-24,065
Swiss franc -33,169
27,482
-14,875
-13,396
US dollar index -46,250
2,587
-11,991
-12,874
Mexican Peso -118,008
-14,488
-64,557
-83,084
Australian dollar -102,706
-10,793
-60,451
-41,514
S&P 500 -88,893
33,981
-88,893
-75,459
T-note -10 yr -74,761
356,573
97,689
84,175
T-bond -30 yr -43,324
158,206
5,302
16,188
Eurodollar -1,179,414
105,872
-263,600
-75,002
Crude oil -200,484
-23,057
-200,484
-172,595
Heating oil -69,179
7,568
-59,580
-43,681
Unleaded gas -91,597
-10,453
-84,480
-80,757
Natural gas 110,310
179,433
134,287
131,956
Copper -34,883
1,793
-32,311
-23,909
Gold -303,791
-207,691
-278,673
-270,469
Platinum -32,628
-15,759
-27,627
-25,454
Silver -65,413
-37,800
-48,825
-49,770

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...

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