China bubble may mean oil trouble

China bubble means potential commodity trouble. China has enough inflation problems already, but the Fed and their policy of quantitative easing may be forcing the Chinese to take more aggressive steps to subdue inflation. Commodities across the board plunged when the "Economic Daily" reported on its website that an economic researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that the Chinese central bank may raise interest rates twice, one time late this year and again early next year. According to Bloomberg News the country's consumer prices may grow 4 percent in November and December, pushing full-year inflation to 3.2 to 3.3 percent, the report said. It's expected that China's consumer prices may grow at 4.7 percent next year.

This caused bulls to take stock of their overbought markets and caused a wave of aggressive profit taking. The Chinese are, of course, the main driver of commodity demand. Commodity and oil bulls look to China as their justification to ignore a global glut of supply. The market had been inspired with a slew of improving demand forecasts such as the one from The International Energy Agency which increased its 2010 oil demand growth forecast by 190,000 bpd to 2.34 million bpd from its previous monthly report on stronger demand in both China and other industrialized economies.

The Fed's QE2 is adding to these inflationary pressures. Hot money is flowing to emerging markets and if China fails to moderate inflation, it could create the potential for overcapacity. This emerging market mania has also been helped along by China's stubborn refusal to allow their currency to reflect its true value. The Chinese, by controlling their currency, run the risk of creating another major economic crisis if they allow their bubble to pop. Their signals are hopefully telling the world that they are prepared to increase interest rates. Maybe they are starting to get it. If the Chinese fail to act quickly enough then the world should get prepared for another bubble to pop.

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

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