Corn: For the first time in a while we actually saw corn finish lower. This certainly does not tell us anything about the move higher, as it took multiple rounds of selling to finish the corn where it did. Overnight trade took out the 588 resistance, which now leaves the door open to 600. Most of trade is already looking past that level to mid 600 to 700.
Most firms, including Allendale, will be releasing estimates for next week’s report Tuesday. We may hear newswires report on one or two of them. Most thoughts center on a 1 to 2 bu decrease in yield. About the only factor looking bearish at the moment would be that the index funds have trimmed some of their long positions over the last few weeks…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: One South American analysis group highlighted its estimate that soybean planting in Brazil had advanced to 29% complete. That is still below last year’s 35% pace. We must point out it is above the 25% average pace for this time of year though.
The bottom line here is producers are feeling better about moisture prospects. Two weeks ago forecasters suggested a change from dry to more normal conditions would be seen. That change was seen in rains this past weekend and in forecasts for more later this week. For now, we must assume South America will not have a problem making production targets…Rich Nelson
Wheat: The wheat market started higher at the beginning of the Sunday night trade, but the market succumbed to profit-taking by the end of the day session. There wasn’t any new information to trade on Monday. With this lack new information it seemed traders decided to book some profits.
The next few days of trading could get volatile as the markets wait out Tuesday’s election results and Wednesday’s Fed meeting results (how much, if any, quantitative easing they do). The weather forecast still looks supportive to that market, as there is still not a lot of moisture on the way to help out his year winter wheat crop. Dryness is an issue for parts of the Ohio River valley as well as the Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado. The lack of rain is hurting the germination and establishment of this year’s crop.
In export news, Egypt is looking to buy wheat and is seeking offers from The United States, Canada, Germany, France, Britain, Australia, and Argentina. In other words, the US had a lot of competition to get this sale. The crop ratings out today showed a 1 point drop in the good to excellent down to 46% compare to 64% a year ago…Jim McCormick
Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Rich Nelson is Director of Research at Allendale. Jim McCormick is a Sr. Broker at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com.
