Oil enjoys weak currency, strike and supply draws

Currency Détente
All we are saying is give peace a chance.

Global leaders on a collision course towards an all out currency war pulled back from the brink of conflict by vowing not to devalue their respective currencies to try and help their export markets. Forget the fact that the United States is on the precipice of a major announcement involving the printing of a bunch of greenbacks and China is looking around saying "who us?" The perception by the market place that the G-20 will do nothing to stop a drubbing of the dollar is sending the yen soaring to a 15-year high and the oil and other commodities soaring in early trade.

In fact, you might wonder why the oil market is not even stronger than it is, considering the fact that not only is the dollar giving us support, but also the impact on the strikes in France that are going to take a toll on U.S. supply. The AP reports that, "French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde says the country's massive strikes are costing the economy up to €400 million ($562 million) each day. Protests over President Nicolas Sarkozy's plan to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62 have left France struggling with fuel shortages, travel chaos and uncollected garbage.

Lagarde told Europe-1 radio Monday that the daily economic cost is between €200 million and €400 million. The minister also says the strikes are damaging France's image abroad. The demonstrations have brought millions into the streets. Open-ended walkouts by railway and petroleum workers have wreaked havoc on commuters and travelers. The Senate voted Friday to pass the pension reform. It's expected to win final approval this week."

We know that the France Strike is leading to larger than expected exports from the United States which means we should see draws in products this week unless the refiners decide to step it up! Look for crude to be down 1.0 million barrels, gas down 2.0 mb, distillates down 3.0 mb and runs up 0.1. Thanks to all of you that attended my last webinar! The response was awesome!

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.


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