Looking for certainty in the direction of financial and commodities markets? Now is probably not the time. That was the overriding theme from today's webinar on the third quarter market outlook by Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN. "'Flux' is the best word to describe these markets," Newsom said. "These markets can change on a moment's notice." For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Newsom said the long-term trend remains down while the short-term trend is uncertain. "I'm basically flat this market. It's difficult to read and I'm getting mixed signals."
Newsom sees a long-term sideways trend for the U.S. dollar index and says that the dollar should drift lower this quarter, with a downside target of 81.475. For gold, he says if the Dow comes under pressure, gold could once again be a safe-haven market, and that its fundamentals are neutral to bearish, with the long-term trend up and the short-term trend down. For the short term for gold, Newsom forecasts the next level of support near $1155, then $1117. He says long-term support is near $1073 and may have to be tested to find renewed buying interest.
The same trends are holding for copper, Newsom says, with the long-term trend up and the short-term trend down. As for crude oil, with the structure of the market still bearish, Newsom says it should come under seasonal pressure with initial support near $69 and longer-term at $59.