Hey the recession might not be over yet! Someone tell the gasoline market. The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee the official score keeper or group whose official job is to say whether or not we are in a recession said in a statement that its' premature to declare that the current slump is over. That among other things seems to cool off some of the irrational exuberance in oil but not so much in the products. Oil fell hard and tried its best for most of the session to ignore that pesky falling dollar. Maybe oil traders have become less impressed with the latest so called Greek Rescue package which according to my count means that Greece now has been rescued more than Sweet Polly Purebred.
Despite the fact that the dollar fell on news of yet Greek Rescue package and the Dow danced above 11,000, oil seemed to fall under the weight of massive supply. Wow the oil focusing on supply, imagine that. Oil bulls may even start questioning the validity of the technical breakout over $85 a barrel that was made on light volume as the market failed to close the holiday impaired week above that psychologically important $85 a barrel. The AFP reported that The International energy Agency said that high oil prices could stall economic recovery in some top economies when it upgraded its forecast for global oil demand this year.
Higher prices together with tighter credit conditions "could stall OECD economic recovery," the IEA said referring to the 30 advanced economies covered by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In its monthly oil market analysis, the IEA reported concerns that oil markets could be "overheated" with the oil price at around 85 dollars a barrel. The group said there were "questions over the sustainability of prices markedly higher" than the 70-80 dollar a barrel level. "Ultimately, things might turn messy for producers if 80-100 dollars a barrel is merely seen as the new 60-80 dollar a barrel," it added.
Perhaps oil did get some support from the improving Jobs data yet despite some improvement it's hard to imagine that those numbers were strong enough for us to imagine a situation where we could see an end to the housing crisis and see all of those foreclosures across the country to get bought up. Or at the very least imagine a summer driving season with strong summer gasoline demand in a world of $300 a gallon plus price.
Still RBOB gasoline futures still rallied as did the heating oil. This despite the fact that supplies for gas are 5.5% above the five year average and distillate stocks 23.2% above the five year average. On top of that there are rising expectations that refiners will start producing more gas to take advantage of the current solid margins and in response to price. Perhaps the products received some minor support from some refinery issues.
We still feel the best way to trade this markets is by playing the ranges. You can call us for our buy and sell points on the energies and other markets as well.
Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at firstname.lastname@example.org.