Hogs: The trade only gets information on pork exports once a month. In addition, the data we do get is two months delayed. That is why the trade looks so closely at these monthly releases and tries to extrapolate the information to imply the same pace is continuing.
Cattle: This market is still pretty excited about last week’s bullish exclamation point for cash cattle and wholesale beef prices. We noted this morning that yesterdays’ big jump in futures prices was done on a big increase in new contracts (new entrants to the market). However, one thing still sticks out in our mind. Volume on that big up day was no better than any of the previous five trading sessions. It is not a reason to get bearish, but something we will keep in the back of our heads. For fundamentals, bulls should be happy about the new beef trade statistics.
Rich Nelson is Director of Research at Allendale, Inc. in McHenry, IL. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com