There was a rosy picture painted for the U.S. dollar, earnings and the economy at large at Dow Jones Indexes' 2010 Global Economic Outlook today. Analysts predicted a rebound in global economic activity. Kevin Logan, an independent global economist, said by the middle of this year, estimates for global GDP growth in 2010 are likely to be double what they were in the middle of 2009. Analysts said that the dollar would start out the year weak, with a recovery sometime in mid-2010.
"By mid-year, the U.S. Fed is expected to lead a coordinated round of monetary tightening among major central banks, which will allow the U.S. dollar to recover lost ground and rebuild its tarnished image. The higher U.S. interest rates rise in 2010, the higher the U.S. dollar is likely to gain against the major currencies," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon.
The outlook for earnings in 2010 is brighter as well. Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citi, expects a 10% increase in major global stock market indexes.
Perhaps one of the more interesting or controversial statements from the presentation was that of Bob Mc Teer, fellow of macroeconomics at the National Center of Policy Analysis. McTeer said, “Congressional and administration pandering to this new populist fervor from the right has contributed to public underestimation of the success of Fed's lending and the Treasury's TARP program, and an overestimation of their costs to taxpayers. Instead, the Fed lending and the Treasury's support of banks have been successful and are likely to have zero cost to taxpayers."
Are we headed for an economic recovery in 2010? And if so, how stable will it be? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.