Energy report: Cold temps boost energy markets

Get the ear muffs out. Oil bears gets frosted as cold temperatures give the energy complex a Columbus Day boost. Global warming takes a holiday as heaters across the country seemed to go on much earlier than usual.

Stunning records for cold were set across the nation increasing the demand for heating fuels over the weekend. The Chicago Marathon, according to the Chicago Tribune, had its coldest start since a 33 degree low in 2002 which they say was a far cry from 2007 when temperatures soared into the upper 80s and officials canceled the marathon after 3 1/2 hours into the event. In Denver it was reported that an arctic cold front moved in and broke a cold temperature record that stood for 104 years. On Friday, Denver saw temperatures plunge 23 degrees in five hours setting the stage to make that record low. There were record lows in many parts of the country like Wyoming, Utah, Illinois and Iowa and if records were not broken in many areas it was extremely close.

The early blast of winter is giving oil a bit of a boost on this lightly traded holiday market. It kind of makes you wonder what happened to global warming. In fact that is what the BBC is wondering in an article titled, "Whatever happened to Global Warming?" The BBC said, “This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998. But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.”

The BBC asks, “So what on Earth is going on?" Climate change skeptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming. They argue that there are natural cycles over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this? During the last few decades of the 20th century, our planet did warm quickly. Skeptics argue that the warming we observed was due to the energy from the sun increasing. After all 98% of the earth’s warmth comes from the sun. But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences. The scientists’ main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature. And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can’t have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A must read online for global warmers and skeptics alike.

Despite the fact that we are having an early winter supplies of heating fuels are more than adequate. Use the weather strength to sell in to. As soon as it warms up oil should cool down. Trilby Lundberg reported that the average price of regular gasoline in the United States has dropped 4.5¢ to $2.47 over the last two weeks. Trilby says that the average price for a gallon of mid-grade was $2.61. Premium was at $2.73.

There was some confusion on the entry on our natural gas trade. Instead of saying to sell at $4.99, we said sold at $4.99. The high of the day was $4.99 so for the purpose of this trade we will say we were not filled. Sorry about the confusion.

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst for PFGBest Research and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.


Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome