E-mini trading advisory for Sept. 30

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 30-September-2009

CaseShiller Home Price Index up 1.6%, Consumer Confidence down to 53.10 on rising unemployment

ECONOMIC DATA

8:15 AM ADP Employment Data

8:30 Q2 GDP Final

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:35 AM Crude Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKET

After trading higher during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1059.25 and pushed up reaching a new high at 1064.25. After pulling back to 1061.00 and while the markets waited for the Consumer Confidence data release, the indexes pushed higher, the SP reached 1065.75. Once the data was out and traders were disappointed by the number the SP sold off to 1055.50. The index held, bounced to 1061.50, pulled back to 1058.50, tested the 1061.00 area and pushed lower to a new low at 1053.50. With low trading volumes, the SP bounced back to 1057.50, pulled back a bit and continued with its rebound reaching 1061.00. Later, markets traded in a sideways pattern that broke down to 1056.50 but managed to hold closing the day quietly. For the day, the SP lost 4.25 points and settled at 1054.75, the Nasdaq lost 7.25 points and closed the day at 1715.50 and the Russell ended lower by 4.00 points at 606.80. The Dow posted another negative session losing 47 points and closing at 9742.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

After posting a solid rally during last Monday session and after the SP successfully tested the 1038.50, yesterday’s rally posted a lower high and failed to close with gains without showing the expected follow through.

The index made its lows on the fourth day and rallied strong in the same session that completed the first degree pullback, yesterday’s early bounce looks problematic. Many times when the markets correct and rallies one day and the next session the index close with losses we can see the downtrend resume, but it is very difficult to rule out that after the correction and the wide range Monday’s positive session, markets won’t fluctuate as they wait for next Friday’s monthly unemployment numbers.

So today’s session will be very important in order to call a move to new highs or the resume of the correction, taking this in consideration I may avoid the long side of the markets if the SP is trading in negative territory, but if the 1051.00-1050.00 area holds I may be a small buyer with tight stops.

TODAY’S SESSION

For today’s trading roadmap and intraday updates, please read the authors bio.

NOTE:

This will be the last E-mini trading advisory for the year. Arturo needs to attend to family and business matters. Futures would like to thank Arturo for providing this insightful newsletter. He may return to the newsletter in 2010. In the mean time we will work on bringing to you other voices and additional analysis on these important markets on a daily basis. We also would appreciate your feedback as to what you would like to see on futuresmag.com.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

Resistance 4

1070.50-1071.50

1737.00-1738.00

619.30-620.50

Resistance 3

1065.75-1066.50

1729.00-1731.00

615.80-616.70

Resistance 2

1060.00-1062.00

1723.00-1724.00

612.10-613.10

Resistance 1

1056.00-1058.00

1718.00-1720.00

607.70-609.40

PIVOT

1049.75

1717.50

609.70

Support 1

1053.50-1052.50

1711.00-1709.00

605.90-604.20

Support 2

1051.00-1050.00

1704.00-1702.00

601.80-600.10

Support 3

1047.00-1045.00

1698.00-1697.00

594.50-593.90

Support 4

1038.00-1037.00

1693.00-1691.00

590.50-588.80

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

FIBONACCI

FIBONACCI

FIBONACCI

1118.88

1832.75

656.8

1098.48

1793.58

641.1

1085.98

1769.58

631.5

1078.25

1754.75

625.6

1073.48

1745.58

621.9

1065.75

1730.75

616.0

1060.98

1721.58

612.3

1059.50

1718.75

611.2

1058.03

1715.92

610.1

1053.25

1706.75

606.4

1045.53

1691.92

600.5

1040.75

1682.75

596.8

1033.03

1667.92

590.9

1020.53

1643.92

581.3

1000.13

1604.75

565.6

DAILY PROJECTIONS

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

AS DAILY HIGH

1060.25

1723.00

611.40

AS DAILY LOW

1047.75

1699.00

601.80

Support, Pivot and Resistance levels courtesy of Arturo Stern. He authors the E-mini Daily trading advisory which gives technical analysis on the major stock index futures contract. For more of his analysis go to www.theminitrade.com Arturo can be reached at arthur@theminitrade.com

Futures and options trading involve risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

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