E-mini trading advisory for Sept. 23

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 23-September-2009

Home prices in the U.S. increased .3% during July. Markets continue to fluctuate trading in a narrow range.

ECONOMIC DATA

10:35 AM Crude Inventories

2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision and Policy Statement

YESTERDAY’S MARKET

With the markets trading higher during the night, the E-mini SP started the session at 1066.00 and pulled back to 1064.00. The index bounced, reached 1066.50 but backed off once more, this time to the 1063.25 level. After holding for a few minutes, the SP made a new intraday low at 1061.50, then it bounced to 1066.00, posted a double top and pushed lower to test the lows. The index bounced once more and reached 1068.75, later, it traded in a sideways pattern and posted a new intraday high at 1069.25. With the Nasdaq showing relative weakness, the move stalled and the markets continue to trade in a sideways pattern, the SP pulled back to 1065.25 but bounced and fluctuated into the end of the session. For the day, the SP added 6.75 points and settled at 1067.25, the Nasdaq closed at 1734.25, up 6.50 points for the day and the Russell added 4.90 points and settled at 618.70. The Dow closed higher by 51 points at 9829.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Markets continue to consolidate and traded in another narrow range as traders wait for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. This last two days correction attempt has failed to gain the necessary momentum to push down; support continues to come at very high levels. But that can change after today’s rate decision, not because rates will suffer any change, just because this tight ranges, normally give way to a strong breakout. Odds favor the chance of another push to the upside, but if the SP trades below yesterday’s lows at 1059.50, that could change and give way to a test of the 1045.00 or 1038.00 areas. So all the time that yesterday’s low remains intact chances favor a final move to the 1100.00-1102.00 mark during the next coming sessions.

Today, we have the FOMC rate decision, rates will stay lower, no changes expected. As in every date in which the market expects a rate decision, the indexes will probably make an early trend move, after that, volumes will be ultra light as traders wait for the news. Many times, the early move gets reversed about 20 minutes before the release of the announcement. Once the news gets released, we normally have three different moves, the first one, a false impulsive move that gets exhausted, its reversal and then, after 30 to 40 minutes after the release, a third move that we should try to follow, that is normally a trend move; traders with limited funds on their accounts, may avoid trading during the day. Look for an up move if the Nasdaq is over performing the SP.

TODAY’S SESSION

For today’s trading roadmap and intraday updates, please read the authors bio.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

Resistance 4

1083.00-1084.50

1758.00-1760.00

628.30-628.90

Resistance 3

1078.00-1079.50

1749.50-1751.00

624.50-624.80

Resistance 2

1073.00-1075.00

1741.50-1743.00

622.50-623.10

Resistance 1

1068.50-1070.00

1737.00-1738.50

619.40-620.60

PIVOT

1065.25

1733.50

617.80

Support 1

1065.50-1064.50

1732.00-1730.00

617.60-617.00

Support 2

1063.00-1061.50

1726.00-1725.50

615.10-614.90

Support 3

1057.50-1055.50

1718.00-1716.00

611.10-610.70

Support 4

1051.50-1050.00

1710.00-1708.00

604.40-603.80

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

FIBONACCI

FIBONACCI

FIBONACCI

1110.69

1808.19

649.1

1094.78

1782.48

638.1

1085.03

1766.73

631.4

1079.00

1757.00

627.3

1075.28

1750.98

624.7

1069.25

1741.25

620.6

1065.53

1735.23

618.0

1064.38

1733.38

617.3

1063.22

1731.52

616.5

1059.50

1725.50

613.9

1053.47

1715.77

609.8

1049.75

1709.75

607.2

1043.72

1700.02

603.1

1033.97

1684.27

596.4

1018.06

1658.56

585.4

DAILY PROJECTIONS

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

AS DAILY HIGH

1073.00

1745.00

623.10

AS DAILY LOW

1063.25

1729.50

616.40

Support, Pivot and Resistance levels courtesy of Arturo Stern. He authors the E-mini Daily trading advisory which gives technical analysis on the major stock index futures contract. For more of his analysis go to www.theminitrade.com Arturo can be reached at arthur@theminitrade.com

Futures and options trading involve risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

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