It’s that time of year where the leaves turn gold, kids go back to school, baseball turns to football and the temperature turns south of 100 degrees in Arizona. Oh, yeah, it’s the fall equinox as well. You know what that means.
Nothing goes straight up or down the whole year. Even the Greenback rallies. By the way, wasn’t it just a mere six months ago the joke would have been the dollar actually PULLS BACK?
How times have changed. That’s the point because in the course of a year we expect trends to change. We are at one of those times. The fact the stock market hasn’t given us a turn all summer doesn’t change what can happen now. My only concern was that a market that kept going up with an ever weaker currency would open the door to a bigger pullback. I told you that as early as June and it hasn’t happened. That doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t.
If you spin the dial around the ‘net, you’ll find the Elliott community looking for a crash and the astro crowd looking for something serious to happen although they don’t claim to know which chart will get crushed. I tend to think people like Merriman have more credibility than most of the Elliott community. Merriman is a source that has statistically validated much of his cycle work and is to be respected.
What you should be aware of is this is the time of year for something serious to develop and it may very well do so before the end of September.
While the equinox is here, we’ve already passed the 180 calendar day mark from the March 21st Gann Master Timing Date and have come up with highs in areas like banking, gold, NDX to name a few right on the button and we still have 233 day window in the metals and the 144 day window in the greenback this week.
We don’t always get these Fibonacci windows so close to the equinox but we do this year, which adds to the probability something can happen.
Of all the charts, the one that has the best square reading in this time frame does appear on the Gold chart which after Thursday’s high gave us a 1.459 reading. What does that mean? It means the Gold chart has rallied exactly 1.459 points for every day since the bottom. Why do we care about this? Gann told us that when price and time square, the direction of the pattern can change. My research shows that when squares imitate Fibonacci, Lucas or geometric numbers that is the finer details we are looking for. If we get these readings around important times of the year it means conditions are extremely ripe for a turn to materialize. It doesn’t have to happen, but the probability goes way up in the window.
While Gold is ready, the dollar might not be ready until the end of the week. We do not a have the same kind of ideal readings in the greenback that are now materializing in Gold.
This is different from about 10 days ago where the dollar was showing us NO readings and the metals were showing us smaller degree readings. At that time I told you this was near term bearish for the greenback and still bullish for the metals. We have gone higher and lower where we anticipated but as we get to the time windows, conditions have changed. Gold is now showing the kind of readings appropriate for a pullback while the dollar isn’t quite there yet but can be at any time going forward considering it will be 144 days off its high by Thursday.
I also told you the stock market would be as good as the BKX. That’s exactly what happened as the banks hit a new high. But the BKX is now showing readings that suggest it may be ready to take a break.
In our subscriber services, we stepped up our sector analysis capabilities and since we did so we alerted subscribers to the move in Natural Gas on a very timely basis, simply because it turned in the 61 week window with a set of Gann calculations that is proprietary to Lucas Wave International and I doubt there are more than a handful of people in the industry aware of these readings. There were similar readings in corn that enabled it to already put in a 15% move off the bottom. It is now testing that bottom. But we were also on top of the tech move as well as the transports to name a few. Now many of these sectors are showing signs of getting tired.
Another sector that merits watching is the $HGX housing sector which was so important in the bear market leadership. It is now up 60% since July (see chart). That may turn out to be very significant. We are now doing a lot of work with the % change which is another area most technicians overlook. This is another one of those charts that peaked on the 17th, day 180 down the road from the Gann date.
If you really want to understand the significance of the percentage change function, among other things, I seriously think you need to sign up for the webinar I’m doing on Oct. 28. There are lots of charts, but one in particular using the percentage change function is very important that will change the way you look at charts.
The title involves the Fibonacci Code but in reality that is only starting point. We are going to take Fibonacci to a new level for many of you. Thanks to movies like The DaVinci Code, the crowd is finally being exposed to Fibonacci numbers for the first time. In the infant stages of the Internet, Fibonacci retracements were cutting edge. It is no longer cutting edge. We have an incredible number of applications for Fibonacci numbers that will be introduced in this webinar. If you miss it, you’ll be missing one of your truly great chances to be exposed to something that change your life. At Lucas Wave International, we don’t hype things that don’t work and we pride ourselves by being on the cutting edge of technical analysis.
As a result of this webinar, I’ve developed a relationship with the good folks at ICE FUTURES US and Global Futures. Since they are sponsoring me for the first time I want to be sure they love this event. By attending, you’ll be the beneficiary of some great information. Most free webinars give a sprinkling of good information because, well, they are free. In this case, by having institutional sponsorship it enables us to provide information not usually available in the free format. Have something else to do on October 28? Clear your schedule, it will be worth it.
http://futuresmag.com/web-seminars/fibo/Pages/default.aspx
By the way, the webinar covers the Russell 2000. We happen to use this cutting edge methodology every day for all the markets at Lucas Wave International. If you want to be on top of the markets all the time, a subscription is just a click away. And chances are we’ll tell you about the next Nat Gas as it materializes.
