Office Depot wider than expected loss, Home prices posted their first monthly gain in three years in May; Consumer Confidence falls for second straight month gave way top a consolidating session as markets fluctuate.
ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Durable Orders
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading lower during the night, the E-mini SP started the session at 972.25 and after holding the lows it bounced to 975.00. As the Nasdaq started to rebound, the SP made it to 979.25 but once the Consumer Confidence data got released it sold off failing to trade above the previous session’s settlement. The index moved down to 973.25, it bounced to 975.00 and pushed down to 969.50, just above the previous session lows. The markets held and the E-mini SP bounced back to 974.00, but without the momentum to turn the markets to the upside it failed and pushed lower to 966.00. Once more markets held at the support levels, the SP bounced back to 970.25. Then, the index backed off, bounced to 970.50, tested 967.75 and pushed up to 972.25. After holding there and with no selling coming into the markets, the SP pushed higher to 975.50. Once it broke higher, the SP reached 978.25, pulled back to 971.50 and bounced once more into the close. For the day, the SP lost 4.00 points and settled at 976.00, the Nasdaq closed marginally higher at 1601.50 and the Russell closed almost unchanged for the day. The Dow lost 12 points finishing the day at 9096.
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Every time that a market close on the high, there is the chance that the move has exhausted, Monday’s close posted a high, that, I still think is not the last high, but held the uptrend during yesterday’s session. While I look for signs of a correction and I see the action during the last two sessions, I still can not call a high; the action looks more like a consolidation that may give bulls a chance to regroup in order to press higher reaching at least the 1000.00 area on the SP.
But the chart is the only valid tool, and if we consider yesterday’s negative close as the first down day of a correction, I may recall that a profit taking move can not exceed more than 3-4 trading sessions or the chances that a short term top has been posted will be in play. My favorite scenario continues to be bullish, the great come back seen on the Nasdaq, which has been the leading force in this rally, was impressive during yesterday’s session, and unless that index starts to trade lower, I don’t see a reason why higher prices won’t be seen.
I don’t want to repeat on every report the possible ways in which this Bull Run may finish, but if today’s trading session is a wide range negative one and the next day the markets fail to push higher, then chances are that we’ll see a greater correction.
Meanwhile unless that happens, buying the dips continues to be the way to go, during today’s trading session, more volatility may be seen, late in the session we have the latest Fed’s beige Book report, certainly that will move the markets.
For today’s trading session, beware of selling pressure if the SP starts to trade below 968.50, but don’t fight the direction coming from the NQ, if everything works as expected, new highs may be seen today.
TODAY’S SESSION
For today’s trading roadmap and intraday updates, please read the authors bio.
|
TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS | |||
|
S&P |
NASDAQ |
RUSSELL | |
|
Resistance 4 |
990.50-992.00 |
1623.50-1625.00 |
563.40-565.10 |
|
Resistance 3 |
987.00-988.00 |
1616.00-1618.00 |
557.20-558.50 |
|
Resistance 2 |
983.00-984.50 |
1610.00-1612.00 |
554.10-555.00- |
|
Resistance 1 |
978.50-980.25 |
1604.00-1606.00 |
551.40-552.30 |
|
PIVOT |
974.50 |
1597.00 |
547.70 |
|
Support 1 |
974.50-973.00 |
1596.00-1594.00 |
547.80-546.90 |
|
Support 2 |
971.00-969.00 |
1591.50-1590.00 |
544.20-543.80 |
|
Support 3 |
965.00-963.00 |
1586.00-1585.00 |
541.50-540.10 |
|
Support 4 |
959.00-958.50 |
1578.00-1576.00 |
537.90-536.70 |
|
S&P |
NASDAQ |
RUSSELL |
|
FIBONACCI |
FIBONACCI |
FIBONACCI |
|
1047.38 |
1720.63 |
593.4 |
|
1022.08 |
1677.38 |
577.4 |
|
1006.58 |
1650.88 |
567.6 |
|
997.00 |
1634.50 |
561.5 |
|
991.08 |
1624.38 |
557.8 |
|
981.50 |
1608.00 |
551.7 |
|
975.58 |
1597.88 |
548.0 |
|
973.75 |
1594.75 |
546.8 |
|
971.92 |
1591.62 |
545.6 |
|
966.00 |
1581.50 |
541.9 |
|
956.42 |
1565.12 |
535.8 |
|
950.50 |
1555.00 |
532.1 |
|
940.92 |
1538.62 |
526.0 |
|
925.42 |
1512.12 |
516.2 |
|
900.13 |
1468.88 |
500.3 |
|
DAILY PROJECTIONS |
S&P |
NASDAQ |
RUSSELL | ||
|
AS DAILY HIGH |
978.75 |
1618.00 |
555.60 | ||
|
AS DAILY LOW |
963.50 |
1591.50 |
545.80 |
Support, Pivot and Resistance levels courtesy of Arturo Stern. He authors the E-mini Daily trading advisory which gives technical analysis on the major stock index futures contract. For more of his analysis go to www.theminitrade.com Arturo can be reached at arthur@theminitrade.com
Futures and options trading involve risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures result.
