Supply slide economics. Oil rides high topping $65 a barrel as the bearish supply side theories, as in we just have too much supply, are now slowly slip sliding away.
The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency reported another big drop in crude supply and a big jump in refinery runs adding to a big surge in gasoline production. And it seems oil imports fell as oil that normally might end up here is seeking better prices in Europe and Asia. How does a 5.4 million barrel crude drawdown get your attention? Well it sure got the market’s attention along with a 600 barrel gasoline supply drop. Refineries operated at 85.1% of their operable capacity last week as refiners increased gasoline production to meet what seems to be a bottoming out of weak demand.
The EIA said that gasoline production rose last week, averaging nearly 9.4 million barrels a day as refiners seemed to start rigging up to meet a rising tide of resurgent demand. Gas supply are well below the five-year average and a continued increase in runs and weak imports may tightened crude supply faster than many thought. Sure crude supply is astronomical and well above the five-year average but so were gasoline supplies not too long ago.
And right now the United States may not be the import beacon for the world’s oil suppliers than it once was. Bloomberg News reports that the number of supertankers transporting fuel oil to Asian markets from the Caribbean between March and May has doubled since a year ago as traders seize on a profitable arbitrage, quoting shipbrokers. Traders can take advantage of the price difference for fuel oil between the two markets, which is now greater than the cost to charter a vessel. Petroleos Mexicanos, China National Petroleum Corp., Glencore Holdings AG and Chemoil Energy Ltd have chartered ships since the end of last month. In other world they are buying cheaper petroleum in the Gulf coast market and selling it in Asia reducing Imports to the States.
All these factors of course are signaling a big turn in the supply demand equation. Traders that keep reciting high supply and weak demand as a reason oil should be lower, are seeing that trend change both on the supply and demand side. The market has been signaling better demand and tighter supplies to come and it has hard evidence. Not just in the raw data but in the other macro and political factors that have been playing out. Traders have to take account of the impact of quantitative easing, the dollar, and the Obama administration policies of record deficits and “green energy” policy which really is an anti oil and gas policy. The market is already pricing in the costs of President Obama’s green energy anti petroleum cap and trade policies, increasing royalties and lease rates while shortening lease holding times, banning off shore oil drilling. Oil is in part rising because the market does not believe that Obama’s green energy plan will be sufficient to meet demand and at the same time will discourage investment in traditional forms of energy creating a price spike potential that may make the last sprint up to $147 a barrel look like a mere walk in the park.
Hey what is with my old buddy over at CNBC Melissa Francis doing offending poor little OPEC super secret leader Ali-al- Naimi? Do you know that she had the nerve to call OPEC a cartel! How derogatory! And right to Ali’s face! How do I know it was derogatory? Well Ali said so. And you could see why. Take a look at the definition of cartel from Wikipedia. “A cartel is a counterfeit agreement among industries. It is an informal organization of producers that agree to coordinate prices and production.” See what I mean! Informal! OPEC is always formal when they agree to conspire and coordinate prices.
Phil Flynn is vice president of Alaron Trading and a Fox Business Network contributor. He can be reached at (800) 935-6487 or pflynn@alaron.com .
