Weakness in the bank sector, GM “intense” bankruptcy preparation and Soros calling to sell the rally gave way to another negative session. After hours, Alcoa swings to loss.
ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
YESTERDAY’S MARKET
As global markets fell, U.S. stock indexes traded in negative territory during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 818.00 and backed off to 815.25. As the selling pressure continued, the SP traded at 813.25, just below the Globex lows. After trying to hold, the SP pushed down to 812.25 and bounced to 815.25 and pulled back. After holding the early lows And leaded by the strength on the Russell, the index tried hard to rally reaching 822.25 from where the index pulled back to 818.75, bounced back to 821.50 and pulled back to 818.25 where the index held strongly. Another bounce to the 821.00 area failed to break and the index pushed down to 816.25 where strong support was found. After another rally attempt that reached 820.50 the SP pulled back to 815.00 and then pushed lower to new intraday lows, 811.25. After another failed rebound attempt that reached 814.25 the markets saw new selling that pushed the index down to 810.75. As the markets continued to trade with the same pattern where selling the bounces was the way to go, the SP pushed up to 814.50 and then to 819.50 where a double top gave way to another visit to the lows. For the day, the SP lost 16.25 points and settled at 814.25, the Nasdaq ended lower by 31.25 points at 1281.00 and the Russell closed at 431.40, minus 14.90 for the day. The Dow lost 186 points and settled at 7789.
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Selling the rallies was the way to go, the markets opened lower and under pressure, the Nasdaq which has been the strongest of all the indexes led the way down. The two-day pullback after the new highs were reached during Monday’s nightly session will get resolved today, or with a strong rally or with a continuation of this pullback that may reach 780.00 before the holiday.
Traders have to understand that the rally which can be qualified as overextended, and the resistance levels, in particular on the Dow, around 8,000 could have completed the rally, that exceeded 12 days or a second degree countertrend, but also, this pullback is normal and the indexes could also move to a new high.
So today’s trading session is highly important for position traders, if we have another negative session and the markets continue to give back their recent gains, a test of the 740.00 area could be in the cards for the coming sessions, if that level holds, a wide sideways pattern that could be building a base for a further advance could be developing, but if the SP fails at the 740.00 area, a test of the lows or a new marginal low could be a possible scenario.
Meanwhile yesterday’s sell off that filled the open gap around the 810.00 have completed a normal pullback, and if the markets will rebound, today they will have to push higher. For us, day traders, selling the bounces all the time that the 830.00 area holds is the way to go.
TODAY’S SESSION
For today’s trading roadmap and intraday updates, please read the authors bio.
DEAR TRADERS: THE NEXT NEWSLETTER WILL GET RELEASED MONDAY APRIL 13; I WISH ALL OF YOU A GREAT EASTER AND PASSOVER.
TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P
NASDAQ
RUSSELL
Resistance 4
831.00-832.50
1308.00-1310.00
443.60-445.40
Resistance 3
826.00.828.00
1299.00-1301.00
439.70-440.60
Resistance 2
821.00-822.50
1292.00-1294.00
436.60-437.50
Resistance 1
816.50-818.00
1285.00-1286.50
433.10-434.00
PIVOT
818.50
1288.50
436.60
Support 1
810.50-809.50
1276.00-1274.00
428.70-427.20
Support 2
806.00-805.00
1269.00-1267.50
424.50-423.60
Support 3
802.25-800-50
1260.00-1258.00
420.80-419.90
Support 4
796.00-795.50
1253.00-1251.00
415.90-414.00
S&P
NASDAQ
RUSSELL
FIBONACCI
FIBONACCI
FIBONACCI
931.50
1531.88
530.4
893.96
1449.46
499.1
870.96
1398.96
479.9
856.75
1367.75
468.0
847.96
1348.46
460.7
833.75
1317.25
448.8
824.96
1297.96
441.5
822.25
1292.00
439.2
819.54
1286.04
436.9
810.75
1266.75
429.6
796.54
1235.54
417.7
787.75
1216.25
410.4
773.54
1185.04
398.5
750.54
1134.54
379.3
713.00
1052.13
348.0
DAILY PROJECTIONS
S&P
NASDAQ
RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH
823.00
1299.00
440.40
AS DAILY LOW
800.50
1248.50
421.20
Support, Pivot and Resistance levels courtesy of Arturo Stern. He authors the E-mini Daily trading advisory which gives technical analysis on the major stock index futures contract. For more of his analysis go to www.theminitrade.com Arturo can be reached at arthur@theminitrade.com
Futures and options trading involve risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
